Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit for the UFC Welterweight Championship.
Many fans scoffed at the idea of Condit getting this title shot after dismantling Thiago Alves. Now that we’re here, I feel most of those thoughts have transformed to thoughts of shear anticipation for what should be an epic main event. Robbie Lawler is perhaps the toughest man on the planet as he is willing to stand in the hottest of fires and still come out unscathed. Lawler has also made a dramatic career resurgence, and most of that can be attributed to intelligent training and fight preparation. Lawler is no longer the wild brawler we saw in the UFC a decade ago, but instead a marvelous boxer with bulletproof takedown defense. Lawler knows that anybody who stands with him will have to take his power – power that only few can withstand. Among the few that can take Lawler’s best shots lies Carlos Condit, one of the scrappiest welterweights on the planet.
Condit is a well-rounded, crafty, intelligent fighter who (like Robbie) is willing to stand in the fire in order to get off with his own offense. While Condit has never been finished by strikes, he is prone to getting hit by power punchers as Johny Hendricks and Tyron Woodley were both able to land with decent effect; however, the threat of the takedown isn’t there with Robbie Lawler. The more I look at this fight, the more I think we’re going to see the very best between Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit. Lawler will have someone willing to stand in front of him and go tit-for-tat with him on the feet, and Condit won’t have someone looking to put him on his back. Because of this, I think the fight is going to come down to experience, intelligence, and toughness.
In terms of experience, Lawler is as game and weathered as they game. While Condit has nearly 40 fights under his belt, Lawler has the experience of being the champion and going into that 5th round several times (although Condit has the experience going head-to-head with Georges St. Pierre). When looking at intelligence, you can’t deny Condit’s fight IQ. Lawler has made dramatic improvements to his intelligence in the cage, but against both Rory MacDonald and Johny Hendricks (in the rematch), he had moments where he was getting tee’d off on. Finally, when analyzing toughness, Lawler and Condit are both extremely durable. However, I favor Lawler here as he has suffered drastic punishment in the Octagon, and seemed to get better from it.
I think this fight will play out similar to Lawler’s last encounter (fight of the year performance against Rory MacDonald). Look for Condit to use his craftiness early to confuse and disrupt Lawler’s rhythm with step-in elbows, rangy kicks, and tight, technical striking. Once Lawler gets enough blood on his face, he’ll settle into his rhythm and start blasting Condit at each and every opening with his sweet, dynamite boxing. I’m not sure if Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit will end in a finish (if he does, it will be late in the fight), but I do expect Lawler to hold onto his belt. I think I’ll pick him by a competitive split decision.
