To say there’s a disconnect in the interest a fan has in watching HBO’s Hard Knocks to the desire of a team to participate in Hard Knocks is an understatement. As advertisements for the NFL go, Hard Knocks is an outstanding product, granting NFL films unfettered access to a single NFL team during its draft preparation and training camp, leading right up until Week One of the regular season.
It’s that access and view inside the coaches and players’ personal lives that makes the show so compelling to us, and such a nightmare for the them. If a team actually wants to be on Hard Knocks, chances are that team is a complete dumpster fire.
A few years ago the NFL fixed this problem. A team could still volunteer to be on Hard Knocks, but no team does (and no team should), any organization can be forced to participate if they haven’t made the playoffs over the last two seasons, haven’t hired a new head coach and weren’t on Hard Knocks in the last 10 seasons.
With the survival of so many coaches who should have been fired, we’ve actually got a decent and interesting list of qualifying teams. Last year I successfully predicted the Houston Texans would get the nod for Hard Knocks, but that wasn’t so much a prediction as just a statement of the obvious. This year there’s seven teams up for the job and an argument can be made for each of them getting it, whether they like it or not.
So here’s the list of the teams in the order I feel they’ll be considered for the show.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
Why they could be picked: Blake Bortles had a break-out second year for the team, passing for 4.428 yards and 35 touchdowns with 18 picks. For the first time since Mark Brunell the Jags have a franchise guy under center. Bortles has exciting weapons too with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns at wideout and T.J. Yeldon in the backfield.
Why they won’t be picked: They’re the Jaguars and there’s no real interest in the team outside its very limited fanbase. Hard Knocks has its rules, but they still want people to watch.
6. San Diego Chargers
Why they could be picked: Philip Rivers is one of the real star players in the NFL and heading into the twilight of his career. With the team using the year to decide to stay in San Diego or move to Los Angeles there are plenty of storylines to focus on.
Why they won’t be picked: The only reason Mike McCoy wasn’t fired this offseason is the team didn’t want to make a coaching change during a possible move. Next season not even that will save him. As bad a head coach as McCoy is, he’s even less a compelling character. NFL Films got stuck with a dud a few years ago in Joe Philbin when they did the Miami Dolphins and won’t make that mistake again.
5. Chicago Bears
Why they could be picked: If you’ve only been watching NFL football for the last decade or so, you might be surprised to learn that the Bears are one of the big, historic league franchises. Getting that NFL films access would kind of be a coup. John Fox is working in a new staff, dealing with some key free agents and trying to get Chicago back to a competitive level. Not to mention that Jay Cutler’s foibles and successes would make compelling TV all by themselves and he would absolutely hate doing it. That sounds like fun to me.
Why they won’t be picked: We’re in the money from here on out, which is to say it’s going to be one of these five teams. The only reason any of these organizations wouldn’t make the cut is if somebody volunteered or NFL films just preferred another team.
4. Oakland Raiders
Why they could be picked: First, they’re the Raiders and bring maybe even more historic cache to the table than the Bears do. Derek Carr is one of the young stars of the league and he’s throwing the ball to the next great wide receiver, Amari Cooper. On defense young players like Khalil Mack have already broken out as stars, but a bigger platform to advertise their talents wouldn’t hurt. Plus, like San Diego, the Raiders might be looking to leave town and have focused their efforts on Las Vegas. I’m sure there’s no reason HBO and NFL Films would want to deal with that.
3. Buffalo Bills
Why they could be picked: Rex Ryan was already the star of Hard Knocks once and of all the coaches on this list, he’d be the only guy into it. And Rex is into a lot of things. Not only do you get Rex Ryan back on TV, you get to see how he teams up with his brother Rob. Add to that LeSean McCoy’s penchant for throwing private sex parties and Sammy Watkins trying his best to match the production of all the other first-round receivers from 2014 and the inevitable pitiful flame-out of Tyrod Taylor at quarterback and you have a show anybody would want to watch.
2. New Orleans Saints
Why they could be picked: Sean Payton. Drew Brees. And this is probably your only chance to get them on Hard Knocks. Unlike the Chargers who seem to be up-and-down every other year, the Saints have been consistently great under Payton and Brees with the exception of the last two seasons. New Orleans as a backdrop doesn’t hurt either. With the Saints and Payton kissing and making up and the team in a rebuilding mode, there won’t be many opportunities to get them on Hard Knocks. NFL Films may not want to waste this one.
1. Los Angeles Rams
Why they could be picked: Jeff Fisher has been a dead man walking before and managed to survive against all odds. With the city of Los Angeles ready to embrace their favorite team, there’ll be plenty of color stories outside of camp. Inside the camp you’ve got a character made for TV in Chris Long and the most talented defensive line in football. Todd Gurley will still be polishing his rookie of the year trophies and you should have a quarterback competition to focus on that Nick Foles should easily win.
