The Atlanta Falcons remain in control of their own destiny in the AFC South with three games left on their regular season schedule. Atlanta can move one step closer to locking up a division title and a playoff spot with a win over the San Francisco 49ers this weekend.
Moneyline: Atlanta -950
Handicap/Spread Odds: Falcons -14
Total O/U: 51.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 11/08/15 | ATL 16 – SF 17 | SF 7.5 | U 43.5 |
| 12/23/13 | ATL 24 – SF 34 | ATL 14 | O 46 |
| 01/20/13 | SF 28 – ATL 24 | SF -3.5 | O 47.5 |
| 10/03/10 | SF 14 – ATL 16 | SF 7 | U 42.5 |
| 10/11/09 | ATL 45 – SF 10 | ATL 1 | O 40 |
On The 49ers Side of the Ball (1-12 Record, 3-10 ATS)
The 49ers led the New York Jets by 14 points at halftime last week but things turned in a hurry in the second half when San Francisco managed just 17 passing yards en route to a 23-17 overtime loss. Carlos Hyde rumbled for 193 yards on 17 carries but it was all for nothing as Colin Kaepernick finished with just 133 yards and a touchdown. San Francisco let another one slip away as they fell to 1-12 on the season.
It’s shocking that the 49ers couldn’t hold such a lead – especially given who they were playing (the Bryce Petty-led New York Jets) and that they were running the ball so effectively. Kaepernick has completely nosedived in the last couple of weeks after being such a bright spot for the 49ers. He has a total of 137 passing yards in his last two games combined. He might be sour from getting benched against the Chicago Bears two weeks ago and he may have mentally checked out on the season. He’s a pending free agent-to-be, so he may be just counting the days.
On the other side of the ball, the 49ers defense did its best last week with six sacks and an interception but it still wasn’t enough as New York managed to grind out the win. The 12th straight loss marks a franchise-worst for the 49ers and there is a good chance that skid will be extended when they visit the Falcons this week.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/11/16 | NYJ | L 17-23 x | L -3 | U 42.5 |
| 12/04/16 | @CHI | L 6-26 | L -0 | U 44 |
| 11/27/16 | @MIA | L 24-31 | W 7.5 | O 44.5 |
| 11/20/16 | NE | L 17-30 | L 10.5 | U 51.5 |
| 11/13/16 | @ARI | L 20-23 | W 13.5 | U 46.5 |
On The Falcons Side of the Ball (8-5 Record, 8-5 ATS)
Matt Ryan torched the Los Angeles Rams for 237 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 42-14 win. The Falcons have scored 40 points or more on four occasions this season and now they will play a San Francisco team that has given up a league-high 30.2 points per game. This week will represent another opportunity for Ryan to polish his impressive statistics for this season – especially if Julio Jones is back in the lineup. He has yet to practice this week, though, and the Falcons might hold him out again. It’s not as if they’ll really need him against the lousy 49ers. San Francisco owns the worst run defense in the NFL, so it’s unlikely that running back Devonta Freeman will stay quiet for the second week in a row. Him and Tevin Coleman should feast in this spot and lead the way to the win.
Last 5 Results:
| 12/11/16 | @LA | W 42-14 | W -4.5 | O 44 |
| 12/04/16 | KC | L 28-29 | L -5 | O 50 |
| 11/27/16 | ARI | W 38-19 | W -4 | O 49 |
| 11/13/16 | @PHI | L 15-24 | L 2 | U 48.5 |
| 11/03/16 | @TB | W 43-28 | W -4.5 | O 49 |
Quick Analysis
The 49ers showed signs of life when they covered against both the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins but they have come crashing back down to earth in back-to-back losses to the Chicago Bears and Jets to fall to 1-12 straight up and 3-10 against the spread. Atlanta has posted a 4-4 mark ATS over its last eight games. The Over has hit in seven of the Falcons’ last eight games overall.
Prediction
Atlanta has the weapons to put up some big point totals against a San Francisco defense that just allowed an average of 24.5 points in losses to the Bears and Jets. The Falcons are in control of their own destiny with three games to play and all three games will be against opponents with losing records. Even with a relatively mediocre effort this Atlanta team should be able to win and cover against the 49ers on Sunday.
Pick: Falcons -14
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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