The summer months are the time of the year when the experts weigh in with their picks for which teams have what it takes to contend on the national level. It’s still far to completely dismiss their projections but we took the time to break down how realistic they truly are and as a result we found a number of picks that simply won’t come to fruition. Here is a look at the five projected contenders that actually have no shot at reaching the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes are absolutely loaded with talent on both sides of the football but an extremely difficult schedule will likely lead to the team falling short of reaching its playoff expectations. It won’t take long for Ohio State to get its first real challenge with a trip to Norman to face the defending Big 12 champion Oklahoma Sooners on September 27th and they will travel to face Wisconsin, Penn State, Maryland and Michigan State before finishing the season at home against Michigan. Consistency was a major problem for the Buckeyes a year ago and a tougher schedule this season will help ensure they miss out on the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive season.
Michigan State Spartans
The defending Big Ten champions will return just 10 starters from last year’s team and their losses will be magnified even more by the fact that Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa all improved on paper. A passing attack that was very shaky a year ago will likely struggled with consistency again this year now that Connor Cook has moved on to the NFL and that will expose a sub-par rushing attack. The Spartans defense should be stingy once again but it won’t be enough to carry them. Michigan State escaped with narrow victories over the Wolverines and Buckeyes a year ago but they could just as easily come out on the wrong side of those matchups this year as they take a step back in the Big Ten.
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss reloaded in the offseason with another talented recruiting class but that won’t provide enough immediate help for them to survive in the loaded SEC West and get to the College Football Playoff. The Rebels have knocked off Alabama in each of the last two years but it is that much more unlikely that they will make it three wins in a row against the defending SEC champions and that isn’t the only tough matchup on their schedule. The Rebels will host Alabama, Georgia and Memphis in three consecutive home games from late September in to early October and that stretch is followed by consecutive road games at Arkansas and LSU. Even if they somehow survive that stretch, Ole Miss would then have to beat Auburn and Mississippi State at home and knock off Texas A&M on the road just to have a shot at an SEC championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff.
TCU Horned Frogs
The Horned Frogs lost some of their top playmakers from a year ago including star receiver Josh Doctson along with the bulk of their offensive line. That will make it even tougher on them in the Big 12 where they will struggle in shootouts against some of the top teams in the conference. West Virginia, Baylor and Texas are all expected to be better than they were a year ago while Texas Tech and Oklahoma State represent a pair of tough home games. Oklahoma needed a nearly flawless performance to reach the College Football Playoff out of the Big 12 a year ago and we don’t expect the Horned Frogs to follow their lead with a lot more holes than they had last season.
USC Trojans
USC is a popular pick for the toughest schedule in the nation this year and that slate will ultimately be their undoing in the SEC and on the national stage. The Trojans might not survive their season opener against the defending national champion Alabama and it won’t get much easier with back-to-back road games at Stanford and Utah to close out the month of September. The Trojans don’t get much of a break after that including road games at Arizona, Washington and UCLA along with home dates versus Arizona State, Cal, Oregon and then Notre Dame in their season finale. That is by far the toughest schedule of the teams projected to contend out of the Pac-12 and it wouldn’t be a surprise if it resulted in the Trojans failing to capitalize on their potential in conference play and on the national stage this season. It’s hard to trust them to get to the College Football Playoff.
