The top division in college football split in to two in the late 1970’s to create the FBS as the higher division and the FCS as the lower division. As a result, it always seems like a bigger deal than it is when a team from the lower division knocks off an FBS opponent. FBS teams posted a 96-9 record against FCS opponents in 2015 and that number pushed us to start thinking about potential upsets for 2016. The Big Ten is eliminating games against FCS opponents and other power leagues but there are still plenty of FBS vs. FCS games on the schedule for this coming season. Here is a look at the five FBS teams on upset alert versus FCS opponents heading in to the 2016 season.
Baylor vs. Northwestern State
September 2nd
The turmoil Baylor’s football program is in right now could lead to some predictable inconsistency. From a talent perspective, they should still be able to beat Northwestern State but due to the offseason issues and the potential for a lack of focus, there is certainly a chance for an upset here. Northwestern State went 4-7 last year and they aren’t expected to be much better in 2016 but this pick has more to do with the Bears’ uncertain situation than Northwestern State being a football power. If Art Briles were still patrolling the sidelines for the Bears, we wouldn’t even consider this. As it is now, they are on upset alert.
UCF vs. South Carolina State
September 3rd
UCF was one of two FBS teams that went winless in 2015 – including a loss to an FCS opponent – so the fact that they open the year against another team from the lower division is the perfect opportunity to expect an upset alert. South Carolina State went 7-4 in 2015 and while the Bulldogs have never beaten an FBS opponent, they will have a golden opportunity to do so here. The Knights aren’t expected to be much better than the group that averaged just 13.9 points per game a year ago, so look for South Carolina State to put them on an upset alert for their opener.
Washington State vs. Eastern Washington
September 3rd
Washington State faltered to Portland State last September when they dropped a 24-17 result at home. While they went on to win nine of their next 12 games to finish with their best record in 12 years, it’s impossible to ignore that early loss when searching for upset potential. The Cougars’ loss to the Vikings was a major shocker, but it goes to show you what happens when your head coach decides to never run the football. While that should serve as a reminder to get up for this year’s game against FCS opponent Eastern Washington, the reality is that anything can happen in a potential early trap game. Hopefully the Cougars have learned their lesson.
Iowa vs. North Dakota State
September 17th
The Big Ten has eliminated scheduling against FCS opponents but this matchup was already set up and that means Iowa will be on upset alert when they face North Dakota State. There is no bigger giant killer than the Bison, which have faced five FBS teams since 2010 and won all five of those matchups. North Dakota State’s average margin of victory against FBS opponents over that span is 10.8 points and they will be motivated to extend their streak against the Hawkeyes. Iowa went undefeated in the 2015 regular season but it won’t take long for them to face a tough test in 2016 with the Bison visiting in September.
Washington vs. Portland State
September 17th
Washington has been among the trendy dark horse picks to contend for a Pac-12 championship in 2016 but they will be in trouble early on if they let that get to their heads early on. The Huskies won’t be battle-tested heading in to this game and while they have never lost to an FCS team they will face a tough test in Portland State. The Vikings went 9-3 and made the playoffs under interim coach Bruce Barnum a year ago and they could be that much more dangerous after a full offseason with him as their full-time head coach.
