Basketball fans and experts are always looking forward to the future when it comes to trying to project the next big thing and while every year we see a number of players enjoy breakthrough seasons, there are also those that have disappointed. The biggest mistake that fantasy GM’s make is setting expectations too high for certain players and it can really come back to haunt them. With an eye toward next year, here are five players that are destined to be overvalued and be drafted too high in NBA fantasy drafts next season.
C – Hassan Whiteside, Miami
Whiteside was one of the biggest stories of this NBA season as he went from a journeyman center and a waiver wire pickup that few thought would ever make it in the association to a quality starter for the Heat and a solid fantasy contributor. He averaged 11.8 points, 10.0 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game in 48 appearances. However, while Whiteside thrived as a sleeper player picked up on the cheap in most leagues, his anointment could make him overvalued heading in to next year’s NBA fantasy season. Whiteside projects as a very good starting center but he still doesn’t deserve to be taken among the first centers off the board despite the fact that there are those that will likely reach for him. In the right spot, he’s a good pick but don’t be the guy that grabs him in the first two rounds.
C- Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia
Philadelphia is a young team on the rise and Noel emerged last season with an average of 9.9 points per game as well as 8.1 rebounds and 1.9 blocks. While those are quality numbers for a young center playing his first full NBA season, he isn’t ready to be considered in the first or even second tier of fantasy centers just yet. The fact that Joel Embiid is ready and waiting to make his NBA debut could also take away from Noel’s production and with Tony Wroten and Robert Covington ready to break through as well, it’s important to temper expectations with Noel.
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SG – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee
The Greek Freak averaged 11.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game last season and while those are decent numbers, those that think his fantasy stats are due to climb again this year are mistaken. Khris Middleton emerged as the leading scorer for Milwaukee this past year and they traded Brandon Knight to make Michael Carter-Williams their starting point guard. Factor in the fact that Antetokounmpo still isn’t an elite pure scorer and it makes sense to temper expectations for him looking forward to next year. He’s good, just don’t draft him too high and expect him to top his fantasy stat averages for this past season.
PG – Goran Dragic, Miami
The fact that Miami found a way to land Dragic is a testament to Pat Riley’s ability and there is no doubt that with a starting five that features Dragic, Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng, Chris Bosh and Whiteside, the Heat will be a true contender in the Eastern Conference. However, there is only one ball on the floor and both Wade and Bosh still need their touches, so while some will be quick to anoint Dragic as one of the top point guards off the board next season, it will be important to not go to crazy and resist taking him in the early rounds.
SF – DeMarre Carroll, Atlanta
Carroll’s breakout performance in this year’s playoffs has influenced several experts to tag him as a future fantasy stud but it’s important to remember that if he stays in Atlanta as a free agent, his numbers could be limited. The Hawks sent four players to the All-Star game a year ago and there is only one ball to pass around so with Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Kyle Korver and Jeff Teague in the fold. Also, Carroll was in a contract year, which usually means players perform harder in order to get the payday. Expect his numbers to dip next season.
