We all see the situations where the writing is on the wall yet we’re still intrigued. You go into the draft thinking “I’m going to avoid that guy” but when you’re on the clock and it’s decision time, you might start shifting your boundaries. We’ve compiled a list of the top five players to avoid but keep in mind that’s based on their current ADP’s.
If someone falls a lot they can offer some value but based on the averages, these are the five guys we’ll be avoiding:
LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs
Power Forward
There was every reason to be high on the Spurs as a potential championship contender following the additions of LaMarcus Aldridge and David West in the offseason but there isn’t nearly as much optimism when it comes to their individual fantasy values.
Aldridge averaged 23.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game for the Portland Trail Blazers this season and while his addition makes San Antonio a better team, it also limits his ability as a fantasy producer since he will now have to share touches with West, Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker.
Aldridge will no longer have to carry his team on his back the way he did in Portland and when you combine that with the necessary adjustment period required for him to get comfortable with his new teammates there is every reason to think Aldridge’s fantasy stock will decline as a member of the Spurs.
DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
Center
After all of the talk about how managing to sign Jordan at the last minute helped the Clippers keep their status as legitimate NBA title contenders, is it actually possible that his numbers could decline this season?
Well, the Clippers do need Jordan as their stud big man that can protect the rim and dominate in the paint at both ends of the floor but his terrible free throw shooting really limited them in last year’s playoffs and really hurt fantasy teams that count free throw percentage. There isn’t really any reason to expect those numbers to improve and with the additions of Paul Pierce and Lance Stephenson there could be even fewer touches for Jordan this season.
The other factor here is that Jordan was in a contract year last season and was playing with extra motivation. That’s possibly why he sent new career highs for points (11.5) and rebounds (15.0) per game, as well as field goal percentage. Now that he’s got the long-term security and there’s more help around him, his numbers should dip.
Chandler Parsons, Dallas Mavericks
Small Forward
One of the factors that held Chandler Parsons back last season was a lack of surrounding help. Yes, of course, there was the injury but when you look at the roster, Parsons didn’t have a lot of help around him besides Dirk Nowitzki, Monta Ellis and Tyson Chandler.
Two of those guys are gone and the third is a year older and is in the twilight of his career. Factor in that Parsons had modified microfracture surgery in the offseason and it’s clear that he is a player you should avoid in fantasy basketball drafts unless he drops a lot.
Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
Point Guard
By this point, it should be no surprise to see him on this list and yet every year he goes high in fantasy basketball drafts with optimistic GM’s hoping it will be the year that he is finally able to stay healthy. The truth is that Rose hasn’t played more than 51 games in a season since 2010-11 and there is a good chance that trend continues this year. He was already banged up in preseason.
There are plenty of options available that don’t come with the same injury concerns as Rose, so look elsewhere when it comes to taking a flier on a point guard in the later rounds.
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Enes Kanter, Oklahoma City Thunder
Center
Kanter’s production got an immediate boost when he arrived in Oklahoma City last season and the Thunder opted to sign him to a substantial extension in the offseason as a result.
However, there are plenty of reasons to avoid reaching for Kanter this year including most notably the healthy return of Kevin Durant and the amount of touches that will take away from him at the offensive end of the floor. Kanter exceeded all expectations with Oklahoma City last year but don’t expect him to match that production. With a healthy Durant and even Serge Ibaka, that will cut into his numbers.
