The Cincinnati Bearcats and the Kansas State Wildcats will square off in Sacramento for a chance to face one of the top teams in the nation – the UCLA Bruins. Kansas State advanced into the Round of 64 with a 95-88 win over Wake Forest on Tuesday night. The Wildcats were dominant in the paint but will next face a Cincinnati team that allows just 60.8 points per game.
Place: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
Date/Time: Friday March 17th, 2017. 7:27 PM ET
TV Coverage: truTV
#6 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. #11 Kansas State Wildcats
LINE: Cincinnati -3 (-109); moneyline -167
Total: 130.5 points (-105 over; -103 under)
The Bearcats enter the Big Dance feeling underseeded
The Cincinnati Bearcats’ (29-5) strong season was disrupted with the AAC finals loss to SMU and their coach Cronin feels that the loss has cost them few spots in the seeding. They will have to travel across the country and face UCLA should they progress past the K-State, and they’ve only learned who their opponent is going to be last night.
The Bearcats play with much physicality and are among the most aggressive teams in the NCAA. Their style of play is designed to tire other teams out; they play at a slow tempo, a result of their defensive efficiency, but also force teams to defend for the entire shot clock when they have the ball. The 6-8 forward Gary Clark has proved to be a key cog for the Bearcats, even though he’s just the third top scorer on the team. He’s an elite defender and rebounder and can carry the offensive load if Caupain or Washington have a bad day.
For the season, Cincinnati profiles as a defensive team, but they score 74.5 points per game – given the tempo they command, not exactly a bad number. They are very good in creating extra opportunities with offensive rebounds and forced turnovers and they also share the rock, making up for a below average shooting percentage of .455. Defensively, they are 8th best in forcing misses (.385 FG%), top the nation in steals and allow 4th best 60.8 points per game.
K-State charged up
Kansas State advanced into the Round of 64 with a 95-88 win over Wake Forest on Tuesday night. The Wildcats were dominant in the paint but will next face a Cincinnati team that allows just 60.8 points per game. Despite how they played in the opener, the Wildcats aren’t nearly that good offensively. The Kansas State Wildcats are averaging 71.7 points on 45.8 percent shooting and allowing 66.9 points on 42.5 percent shooting. But the winning carries over and the Wildcats won 4 out of their 5 games, falling only to WVU by a single point.
Hot player for the Wildcats is Wesley Iwundu, averaging 12.5 points and 6.4 boards, fresh of the new career high of 24 points set in the First Four game. They didn’t have a dominant scorer over the course of the season, but 4 players averaged double digit points. They don’t score efficiently each game and it has cost them games, but do have a solid defense that can’t make up for the offensive lapses. The Wildcats allowed 67.6 points per game, mainly focusing on protecting the paint.
#6 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. #11 Kansas State Wildcats Game Trends & Prediction
The Bearcats were 17-14 against the spread and have covered their first 4 games in March before the SMU loss. Their games feature low total points lines so they couldn’t offer much value on the unders, going 12-15 for the season.
Kansas State has slightly overachieved judging by the ATS record, as they went 16-11, covering in each of their last 5 games. They also went 12-15 against the over/under, but with higher average total lines than their next opponents.
When the tourney comes, give me a team that will grab, push, dive, and bite. The Bearcats style may be ugly to the eye, but you don’t get any pretty and easy points. The Wildcats aren’t lethargic themselves, but will struggle to create any momentum and will likely lose the rebounding battle. I’m picking Cincy to beat the small spread as in the matchup of similar teams as they just do all the good things a little bit better. This isn’t going to be a pretty game, so I’m also going with the unders.
My Pick: Cincinnati -3
Total: Under 130.5 points
