NCAAF Picks: The Nebraska Cornhuskers were thought to be improved and a Big Ten title contender but their 59-24 humiliation loss at Wisconsin did much to damage their reputation and bust up good will with gamblers. And then last week’s sloppy Senior Day home loss to Minnesota has put the full heat back on head coach Bo Pelini’s seat.
The Iowa Hawkeyes are a schizophrenic team that have become a challenging handicap as well as a continuing source of frustration for their fans. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is also under fire for not delivering in a season in which the schedule was set up perfectly for a Big Ten West Division title.
The Iowa Hawkeyes will host the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Kinnick Stadium on Friday with coverage on ABC starting at noon ET. Nebraska opened as a one point favorite.
Big Red Ink Slide
Nebraska is 8-3 straight up, 6-4-1 against the spread, and 6-5 over the total. The Huskers have failed to get the money in their last four games. Nebraska is ranked 15th in the nation for rushing offense and 16th for scoring offense. The Huskers defense has slipped badly down the stretch and ranks 50th overall and an even worse 83rd against the rush. RB Ameer Abdullah has rushed for 1319 yards and 6.5 yards per carry but is banged up. Pelini has seemed to have reached a plateau at Nebraska of fielding teams that are good but not great and is yet to win a conference championship in seven seasons on the job. Nebraska’s lack of a dominant defense is particularly disturbing considering Pelini’s defensive background.
Mediocrity in Iowa City
Iowa is 7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, and 5-5-1 on over under totals. The Hawkeyes are coming off a 26-24 home loss to Wisconsin but did cover as 9.5 point dogs. Iowa ranks 78th for scoring offense and 58th against the rush on defense. It has been a decade of subpar football in Iowa City and the equity of past BCS Bowl berths has expired for Ferentz.
Matchup and Pick
Despite their debacle at Wisconsin at couple of weeks ago the Huskers have shown improved betting value on the road with seven payouts in their last nine away games. Nebraska has gone under the total in five out of their last nine away games.
Iowa has been a poor betting value at home with just six payouts in their last 20 home games. The Hawkeyes have gone under the total in five out of their last eight home games.
Iowa has come away with the money in their last two meetings with Nebraska with two out of the last three meetings between the Hawkeyes and Huskers going under the total.
Nebraska gets the call.
