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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros Free Pick 06/27/18

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays are set to take on the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. This AL matchup will get going at 2:10 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to ATTSN Southwest to catch the action.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros Odds

Vegas is listing Toronto (+205) as the underdog to Houston (-225). The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can wager on the over or the under for -110. Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the odds standing at Blue Jays +1.5 runs (-105) and Astros -1.5 runs (-115).

The Blue Jays are 37-42 SU and are 38-40 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 2.7 units for moneyline gamblers and 6.3 units ATS. Toronto’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven. The Astros, on the other hand, are 53-28 SU and 44-36 ATS. The team’s gained 3.4 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 5.0 units ATS. Houston has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.

Astros games have had an over/under record of 37-39-4 so far in 2018. The Blue Jays have an over/under record of 37-33-8.

Right-hander Marco Estrada will get the nod for the visiting Blue Jays. Estrada (4-7, 4.48 ERA) has recorded 68 strikeouts in 84.1 innings so far. He has yet to face the Astros this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-0, 3.86 ERA and seven strikeouts across seven innings).

The Astros will turn to lefty Dallas Keuchel (4-8, 3.90 ERA), who’s got 77 punchouts and 25 walks to his credit as well as a 1.31 WHIP. Keuchel did not record a start against the Blue Jays in 2017.

Toronto’s pitchers have allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.86 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.12 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.13, along with a WHIP of 1.39.

Blue Jays hitters have slashed .236/.311/.421 on their way to 4.5 runs scored per game this season, including 4.2 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).

Toronto’s hitters have been led by third baseman Yangervis Solarte and right fielder Kevin Pillar. Solarte is slashing .252/.310/.455 with 15 home runs, 44 RBIs and 39 runs scored, while Pillar has a .242 average with seven homers, 28 RBIs, 35 runs and 10 steals.

In the other dugout, Houston’s pitching staff has allowed 3.0 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starters have a 2.88 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 2.67, a WHIP of 1.03 and a K/9 of 10.9.

The Houston offense has put up 5.2 runs per contest, including 5.3 per game over its last 10 games and 5.0 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .231/.350/.408 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that span.

The Astros’ offense has been led by second baseman Jose Altuve and right fielder George Springer. Altuve is slashing .345/.408/.492 with seven home runs, 41 RBIs, 54 runs and 11 stolen bases, while Springer’s line sits at .263/.345/.460 with 15 homers, 42 RBIs and 58 runs.

The Blue Jays have lost 11.6 units and are 14-15 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in 12 of those games, compared to 13 that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Astros have netted 11.3 units and are 30-20 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 23 of those games, compared to 24 that went under the total.

Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Astros, ATS Winner – Blue Jays, O/U – OVER

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Notes

Betting Trends

The under has cashed in four of Houston’s last seven games.

The Astros have won three of their last four games SU.

Houston has posted 23.3 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 20.6 over its last five.

The Blue Jays have hit 18 home runs in their last 10 games. The Astros have hit 13 over their last 10.

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