The Cincinnati Reds are traveling west to take on their divisional rival Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The opening pitch is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET and NBC Sports Chicago will be televising the matchup.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Odds
The Reds are just 38-49 SU and have gone 51-36 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 5.1 units for moneyline bettors, despite having gained 5.0 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven. The Cubs, on the other hand, are 49-35 SU and 44-40 ATS. The team has gained 0.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 5.3 units ATS. Chicago has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.
Chicago games have had an over/under record of 37-46-1 so far in 2018. Cincinnati has an over/under record of 43-40-4.
Tyler Mahle is getting the nod for the visiting Reds. The right-handed Mahle is 6-6 with a 3.83 ERA and 93 strikeouts. He’s 1-1 with 13 strikeouts and a 3.00 ERA against Chicago this year (two starts).
The Cubs are sending lefty Mike Montgomery (3-2, 3.55 ERA) to the mound. Montgomery has 45 strikeouts and 22 walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 1.21. Montgomery is 0-0 with 10 strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA in one start against Cincinnati this year.
Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 5.19 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.57 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.90, along with a K-per-9 of 8.16.
The Reds offense has slashed .256/.338/.402 on its way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 8.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (4-1 SU).
Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza continue to lead Cincinnati’s offense. Gennett is hitting .331/.371/.527 with 14 home runs, 57 RBIs and 51 runs scored, while Peraza is hitting .275 with five homers, 29 RBIs, 49 runs and 14 stolen bases.
In the home-team dugout, Chicago’s pitchers have allowed 3.9 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.81, a WHIP of 1.34 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.9. The bullpen has posted a solid ERA of just 3.19, a WHIP of 1.29 and a K/9 of 9.0. In 37 games against NL Central foes, Cubs starters have an ERA of 2.86 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.84.
The Chicago hitters have produced 5.1 runs per outing, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 9.0 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .370/.463/.618 over its last five games and is 5-0 SU during that stretch.
Second baseman Javier Baez and left fielder Albert Almora Jr. have led the Cubs’ batters this year. Baez is hitting .286/.321/.555 with 16 home runs, 61 RBIs, 54 runs and 15 steals, and Almora Jr.’s line is .329/.370/.462 with four homers, 27 RBIs and 46 runs.
The Reds have gained 3.6 units and are 14-9 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 15 of those games, as opposed to seven that’ve gone under against lefty starters. On the other hand, the Cubs have lost 6.2 units and are 33-32 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 28 of those games, as opposed to 36 which went under the total.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The over has hit in five of Chicago’s last seven games.
The Reds have won four of their last five games SU.
Cincinnati has recorded 24.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 28.0 over its last five.
The Reds have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.
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