The Massachusetts Minutemen have wandered in the college football desert for a long time. They were independents for a period of time. Then they went to the Mid American Conference for a few years and had a terrible experience in that conference. Then Massachusetts went back to the independent world. Some people within the university felt that football was losing money for the school and should no longer compete at the Division I level. Last year, though, the program finally began to take what seemed to be some major steps forward.
Will this team be able to go over its regular season win total of 5.5 in 2018?
UMass 2018 regular season win total
Over 5.5
Under 5.5
Odds courtesy of BetDSI Sportsbook.
What Happened Last Year
The team started 0-6 last year and appeared ready for another humiliating journey, but it finished 4-2 to create a 4-8 season and change attitudes in the locker room. Quarterback Andrew Ford threw for 22 touchdowns and surrendered only four interceptions, showing the level of discipline with the ball which can enable this team to be highly competitive again in 2018, with Ford back under center.
The late charge represented a sustained increase in consistency which often means that the following season is going to produce yet another improvement. Is UMass about to go up the ladder? The 2017 season’s conclusion has made that question uncertain, which – for a long-struggling program – is a good thing. The Minutemen aren’t taking losing for granted anymore, and that’s a sign something could be changing in Amherst.
What Will Change This Year
Syracuse transfer running back Jordan Fredericks will provide depth and diversity to the offense, but that gain will be offset by the loss of tight end Adam Breneman, who hauled in over 700 yards of passes last year for quarterback Andrew Ford.
The Minutemen lose three starters on their defensive line and will need reinforcements. So many of the teams in the smaller conferences or in the weaker independent sections of college football have very fragile line play, and get blown off the ball by beefier, more powerful fronts. UMass might have good finesse players, but if the linemen get physically dominated, their speed and agility won’t matter. That will be a centerpiece of the coming season’s attempts to make necessary adjustments and sustain the gains made in 2017.
Also of note: Kicker Logan Laurent was a high-quality placekicker and punter, and he is now gone due to graduation.
Outlook & Prediction
The six most difficult opponents for UMass are Boston College, Ohio, South Florida, Connecticut, BYU, and Georgia. It is hard to see how the Minutemen will get wins in any of those six games. All of those teams are noticeably more talented than UMass. This means the Minutemen have to go six for six in the more winnable games on their schedule. Can a team with UMass’s reputation display such a high level of dependability and consistency, close to what it displayed late last season? It is possible to answer that question with a yes, but the smarter answer should be a no. Take the under.
