The top three teams in the College Football Playoff rankings are pretty much guaranteed to hold down their spots, assuming they win out. Alabama, Oregon, and Florida State have done enough to establish their position in the rankings as the top three teams.
While there is still the potential for an upset, as all three teams clash with rival opponents this weekend, they’ll all be favored in their remaining games. Should they win out as expected, that leaves only one spot in the inaugural College Football Playoff up for grabs with four teams in consideration. Here is a quick look at the four teams that could earn that final seed.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (9-1) – SEC
A close loss at Alabama ended Mississippi State’s undefeated run and bumped them out of the top spot, but it wasn’t enough to completely knock them out of the top four. Navigating through a brutal schedule that included wins over LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn was very impressive and the Bulldogs remain in control of their own destiny heading in to this week’s showdown with Ole Miss. The Rebels took a dramatic step back with a shutout loss against Arkansas last week and as long as Mississippi State gets the job done on the road in the Egg Bowl this week, they should lock up the No. 4 spot at 10-1.
TCU Horned Frogs (9-1) – Big 12
If the Bulldogs lose to Ole Miss, all bets are off. There are at least three other teams that could climb in to that No. 4 spot beginning with No. 5 TCU. The Horned Frogs only loss came in a shootout at Baylor earlier in the year when they lost 61-58 and they have won five straight games since, including victories over ranked opponents in Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Kansas State.
TCU had an extra week off to prepare for this week’s showdown with Texas. Though it won’t be an easy test, a win would provide a tremendous boost with only a game versus Iowa State the following week left on their schedule. An 11-1 record combined with a Mississippi State loss could be enough for TCU to slide in to the No. 4 spot, although their chances would still hinge largely on how the committee regards the Big 12 and TCU’s strength of schedule.
Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1) – Big Ten
That last point could be the biggest difference between the Horned Frogs and Ohio State as the Buckeyes play Michigan this week, looking to improve to 10-1. The Buckeyes dominated Illinois and beat Michigan State by 12, but the fact that the Big Ten has been so average this season could work against them. The loss to Virginia Tech certainly hurts the most but so does a pair of close wins over Minnesota and Indiana. Nine straight wins won’t be easy to overlook but a relatively weak Big Ten schedule combined with the one loss could be enough to keep Ohio State from clinching the No. 4 seed should Mississippi State falter this week.
Baylor Bears (8-1) – Big 12
Baylor has registered three straight blowout wins over Kansas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State but they will have to continue their dominance and get to 11-1 to have any shot at climbing over TCU. The Bears did beat the Horned Frogs earlier in the year. It’s not completely unrealistic to think that if they put together a couple of blowout wins over Texas Tech and Kansas State, and the Bulldogs falter, then perhaps it will be Baylor that makes the leap in to the No. 4 spot and clinches the final College Football Playoff seed. The Bears will need a lot of help but history has shown us that anything is possible – especially during rivalry week.
