This decade has been a really good decade for San Diego State football. The Aztecs have found a tried-and-true formula of a strong running game, a physical and resolute defense, and just enough passing and placekicking to stitch together the larger operation. Head coach Rocky Long did good work at New Mexico a decade ago, but he has been far better in San Diego, leading the Aztecs to multiple conference championships and a consistent place in the top tier of the Mountain West. The question is not whether San Diego State will be a good team this season, but if it can be a great team this year.
Will this team be able to go over its regular season win total of 8.5 in 2018?
San Diego State 2018 regular season win total
Over 8.5
Under 8.5
Odds courtesy of BetDSI Sportsbook.
What Happened Last Year
The Aztecs had a season which a lot of other schools would love to have, but it was not a season which matched San Diego State’s hopes and dreams. They did win 10 games, which counted for a lot and is something to treasure. The Aztecs did defeat Stanford, showing that they can compete with a top-level Pac-12 Conference opponent. They showed that they were capable of playing excellent football when at their best. However, they weren’t at their best in three of the games which meant a lot to them and their season.
The Aztecs played their worst games of the year against their foremost rival, Boise State, and against their foremost competition in the Mountain West’s West Division, Fresno State. Their offense no-showed in these games, a huge source of disappointment and an indication that if opposing defenses were able to shut down star running back Rashaad Penny, they were able to shut down the whole SDSU offense. The passing game wasn’t enough in those games.
In the bowl game, the offense scored over 30 points, but this time the defense crumbled in a late loss to Army. San Diego State didn’t win a division title or a conference title, and it didn’t even win a bowl game. The Aztecs will try to get the formula right this year.
What Will Change This Year
Star running back Rashaad Penny was taken in the first round of the NFL Draft. This continued the San Diego State pipeline of great running backs from seasons past. Penny’s predecessor, Donnel Pumphrey, had starred the year before – both men made a run at the Heisman Trophy but were not selected as finalists for the award. Now, how will the Aztecs replace production at running back, or will they even try?
The Aztecs could opt to move toward a more balanced offense with more of a reliance on the passing game, or they could redouble their efforts to the running attack. That will be an important point for Long and the rest of the coaches to figure out this year.
Outlook & Prediction
The toughest opponents are Stanford, Boise State, Air Force, and Fresno State. Stanford and Boise State are almost certain to beat SDSU, and the Air Force-Fresno pair of games will probably be split. Yet, at some point, San Diego State will probably have to lose a game it isn’t expected to lose in order to fall under the number. This team still should win at least nine games. Take the over.
