The Philadelphia Phillies are traveling south to Marlins Park to take on their divisional nemesis Miami Marlins. Fox SportsNet Florida will be showing the action and the game is scheduled to get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Odds
Philadelphia (-135) is favored over Miami (+125) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this night game at eight runs (-110 for the over and -110 for the under). You can also bet on the game’s runline with the most recent odds sitting at +110 for the Phillies -1.5 runs and -130 for the Marlins +1.5 runs.
The Marlins are 51-44 against the spread (ATS)despite being only 39-56 straight up (SU). They’ve gained 2.1 units for moneyline bettors while earning 2.6 units (ATS). The Phillies are 52-40 SU and have gone 41-50 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 11.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline, but have lost 17.1 units ATS.
Marlins games have a 49-44-2 over/under record thus far in 2018. Philadelphia has been a decent under bet with a total record of 39-48-4.
Right-hander Jake Arrieta is the probable starter for Philadelphia. Arrieta (6-6, 3.47 ERA) has racked up 69 strikeouts in 96 innings so far. He’s 0-1 with seven strikeouts and a 9.39 ERA against Miami this year (two starts).
The Marlins are putting the ball in the left hand of Wei-Yin Chen (2-6, 6.14 ERA), who’s got 49 strikeouts and 27 walks this season as well as a 1.55 WHIP. Chen has yet to face the Phillies this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-1, 5.14 ERA and five strikeouts across seven innings).
Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.72 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 9.06 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.04, along with a WHIP of 1.21 and a K/9 of 9.38.
Phillies hitters have slashed .237/.323/.393 on their way to 4.4 runs scored per game this year, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
Philadelphia’s offensive production has been fueled by right fielder Odubel Herrera and second baseman Cesar Hernandez, who have combined to drive in 80 runs. Herrera is hitting .277/.329/.463 with 16 home runs, 52 RBIs and 46 runs scored. Hernandez is hitting .269 with eight homers, 28 RBIs, 63 runs and 14 stolen bases.
For the home team, Miami’s pitching staff has yielded 5.1 runs per game overall in 2018. The team’s starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.72, a WHIP of 1.35 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.7. The bullpen has a 4.94 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 8.4 K/9. In 29 divisional games, Marlins starters have an ERA of 4.38 and the bullpen’s ERA is 7.41.
The Miami hitters are putting up 3.8 runs per outing, including 3.9 per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .314/.392/.452 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that span.
The Marlins’ batters have been led by second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson. Castro is hitting .296/.343/.417 with seven home runs, 36 RBIs and 57 runs scored, and Anderson’s line is .288/.365/.422 with seven homers, 46 RBIs and 52 runs.
The Phillies have gained 1.1 units and are 9-12 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 10 of those games, as opposed to 10 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have netted 2.7 units and are 34-35 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 36 of those games, compared to 31 that went under the total.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins MLB Tip
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The under has cashed in five of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
The Phillies have won three of their last four games SU while the Marlins have won three of their last four.
Philadelphia has recorded 21.4 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 21.6 over its last five.
The Phillies have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit 11 over their last 10.
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