The Chicago Cubs will head east to PNC Park to square off against their NL Central nemesis Pittsburgh Pirates. The matchup will begin at 7:05 p.m. ET and fans hoping to watch it can tune in to NBC Sports Chicago.
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
Vegas has listed Chicago (-130) as the favorite over Pittsburgh (+120). The total is sitting at 8 runs and bettors can wager on the over for +105 and the under for -125. The game’s runline odds sit at +115 for taking the Cubs -1.5 runs and -135 for the Pirates +1.5.
The Pirates are 55-51 straight up (SU) and 52-55 against the spread (ATS). The team has gained 2.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 4.6 units (ATS). The Cubs have gone 60-44 SU this year and are 54-51 ATS. Overall, the team’s accumulated 1.1 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 3.2 units ATS.
Pirates games have had an over/under record of 50-49-8 in 2018. Chicago has been a decent under bet with a total record of 49-55-1.
Southpaw Jon Lester is projected to start for Chicago. Lester (12-3, 3.06 ERA) has racked up 96 strikeouts in 120.2 innings so far. He’s 2-0 with 14 strikeouts and a 4.00 ERA against Pittsburgh this year (three starts).
The Pirates are sending righty Jameson Taillon (7-8, 3.73 ERA) to the mound. Taillon has 114 punchouts and 32 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.22. Taillon hasn’t faced the Cubs yet this year, but he made three starts against them in 2017, putting together a 1-2 record with a 5.40 ERA.
Chicago’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.16 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 7.58 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.23, along with a WHIP of 1.40.
Cubs hitters have slashed .265/.348/.422 on their way to 5.0 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Second baseman Javier Baez and left fielder Albert Almora Jr. have paced Chicago’s offense. Baez is slashing .296/.327/.562 with 21 home runs, 77 RBIs, 65 runs and 19 stolen bases, while Almora Jr. (.307/.344/.421) is up to four homers, 30 RBIs and 50 runs scored.
For the home team, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game overall this season. The club’s starters have a 4.21 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.25 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 10.0 K/9. In 42 games against divisional foes, Pirates starters have an ERA of 3.21 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.72.
The Pittsburgh offense is putting up 4.6 runs per contest, including 5.0 per game against divisional foes and 5.0 per game over its last five. The team has hit .268/.335/.446 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
The Pirates’ batters have been led by outfielders Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte. Dickerson is hitting .318/.351/.517 with 11 home runs, 44 RBIs and 50 runs scored, and Marte’s line is .289/.335/.497 with 16 homers, 54 RBIs, 57 runs and 25 stolen bases.
The Cubs have lost 7.2 units and are 39-41 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 38 of those games, as opposed to 41 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Pirates have lost 5.3 units and are 12-16 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 17 of those games, compared to 10 that’ve cashed the under.
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates MLB Tip
Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Cubs, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The over has cashed in just two of Pittsburgh’s last seven games.
Chicago has posted 20.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 16.8 over its last five.
The Cubs have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.
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