The New York Mets are playing host to the Cincinnati Reds at Citi Field. SportsNet New York will broadcast this NL matchup and the game gets underway at 12:10 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets Odds
The Mets are 46-64 straight up (SU) and 50-59 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 20.8 units for moneyline bettors and 15.3 units (ATS). New York has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Reds are 48-64 SU and have gone 65-48 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 5.5 units for moneyline gamblers, but have gained 5.3 units ATS. Cincinnati is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.
New York games have had an over/under record of 47-57-5 in 2018. The Reds have been a decent over bet with a total record of 59-50-4.
Right-hander Tyler Mahle is projected to start for Cincinnati. Mahle (7-9, 4.95 ERA) has recorded 105 punchouts in 109 innings so far. He has yet to face the Mets this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (0-1, 6.75 ERA and two strikeouts across four innings).
The Mets will put the ball in the right hand of Jacob deGrom (5-7, 1.85 ERA), who’s got 173 strikeouts and 33 walks as well as a 0.97 WHIP. deGrom made two starts against the team in 2017, compiling a 0-1 record in 2017, posting a 0-1 record with a 3.75 ERA and 15 strikeouts.
As a unit, New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.7 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 4.05, a WHIP of 1.26 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.0. The bullpen has a 4.93 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 8.4 K/9.
The New York hitters are putting up 3.9 runs per contest, including 2.8 per game over its last 10 games and 3.2 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .253/.311/.373 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
Second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and outfielder Michael Conforto have paced the Mets’ offense this year. Cabrera is slashing .277/.329/.488 with 18 home runs, 58 RBIs and 48 runs scored, while Conforto is hitting .235 with 14 homers, 39 RBIs and 45 runs scored.
In the visiting dugout, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 5.30 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 7.44 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.09, along with a WHIP of 1.45.
Reds hitters have slashed .256/.337/.400 on their way to 4.6 runs scored per game in 2018, including 3.6 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (0-5 SU).
Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza continue to lead Cincinnati’s hitters. Gennett is slashing .311/.362/.494 with 17 home runs, 67 RBIs and 65 runs scored. Peraza is slashing .279/.323/.382 with six homers, 39 RBIs, 57 runs and 17 steals.
The Reds have lost 8.3 units and are 47-37 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 42 of those games, as opposed to 39 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 13.4 units and are 37-44 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 35 of those games, compared to 41 that went under.
Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The under has hit in four of Cincinnati’s last seven games.
The Reds have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit 11 over their last 10.
Cincinnati has averaged 19.4 runs + hits + errors over its last 10 outings and 18.2 over its last five.
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