The college football season is about to meet its final full weekend of action. The conference championship games have arrived, plus a few key games in the Big 12 Conference.
The College Football Playoff teams will be announced next Sunday, as everyone is waiting to see who will be in and who will be left out. The main concern is if an upset or two happens this Saturday. How will things get shaken up if the day generates some surprises? Let’s look at the odds for the contending teams and if surprises are likely on Championship Saturday.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
This week: 17/10 odds
The Crimson Tide took a very big step toward the College Football Playoff by beating Auburn, 55-44. Wide receiver Amari Cooper had one of the best days any receiver has enjoyed this season, catching 13 passes for 224 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Crimson Tide back from a 33-21 third-quarter deficit.
Alabama’s defense was finally able to stiffen in the second half and contain an Auburn offense that gained almost 400 yards in the first half of Saturday’s game. The Crimson Tide now move on to play the Missouri Tigers in Atlanta for the SEC title this next Saturday.
If Alabama wins, it will not only be in the playoff, but it will very likely be one of the top two higher seeds in the four-team playoff, meaning that it will play a game closer to home instead of having to travel out of its own region. That should give the Tide an advantage in the semifinals and put them in very good position to reach the national championship game.
2. Oregon Ducks
This week: 5/2 odds
The Ducks are one step away from making the College Football Playoff, having beaten Oregon State soundly this past Saturday. Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota is a Heisman Trophy candidate, and he did very well against Oregon State, leading the Ducks to a 30-0 lead in the second quarter by scoring four touchdowns, three of them passing.
Oregon is playing extremely well on a consistent basis, and the Ducks just hope they can keep things going against the Arizona Wildcats this Friday night in the Pac-12 Championship Game in San Francisco. The Ducks lost to the Wildcats, 31-24, earlier this season, when three starting offensive linemen were out with injuries. Those linemen are healthy now, and as a result, the Ducks should feel very confident about where they are as a team.
3. TCU Horned Frogs
This week: 5/1 odds
The Horned Frogs are moving up in the odds race because people see Baylor struggling in the competition between the Big 12’s two foremost playoff contenders. The Frogs won by 38 points at Texas on Thursday night, while Baylor had to sweat out a tying two-point conversion by Texas Tech on Saturday, hanging on for a 48-46 win.
The Bears fell in the estimation of the public, so there is a growing sense that unless Baylor blows out Kansas State this Saturday, TCU will get the nod over Baylor, even though Baylor would win the Big 12 championship due to a head-to-head win over the Horned Frogs. As long as TCU beats Iowa State this Saturday without any hiccups, the Horned Frogs will have a very good chance of making the playoff.
4. Florida State Seminoles
This week: 13/2 odds
The Seminoles are in with a win over Georgia Tech this Saturday in the ACC Championship Game, but many people are worried if they’re going to make it. Florida State is still a banged-up team, especially on defense, and Georgia Tech’s cut blocking could be a problem for the Seminoles’ defensive line.
On the other side of the field, Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston threw three first-quarter interceptions last week against Florida, while also taking this cheap shot late on the sidelines. He will have to be a lot more composed against the Yellow Jackets for Florida State to win this game and move on to the playoff. The Seminoles are favored by only three points.
5. Baylor Bears
This week: 9/1 odds
The Bears are in a position where they have to not only beat Kansas State, but beat the Wildcats by a large margin, in order to make the playoff. Baylor did itself no favors by struggling with a Texas Tech team that’s not going to be in a bowl game. The Bears have to reshape the minds of the members of the playoff selection committee.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes
This week: 12/1 odds
The Buckeyes are in trouble after quarterback J.T. Barrett got knocked out for the remainder of the season this past Saturday against Michigan. Cardale Jones will take over at quarterback for a Buckeye offense that will likely have to rely on the running game in the Big Ten Championship Game against the Wisconsin Badgers this Saturday in Indianapolis. Ohio State has to prepare a lot differently and must simplify its playbook. The Buckeyes’ offensive line has to play its best game of the season.
7. Missouri Tigers
This week: 28/1 odds
The Tigers get their shot at Alabama in the SEC Championship Game this Saturday. If Missouri wins and Florida State, Oregon, TCU, and Baylor all lose, then a Tiger appearance in the playoff is possible. Missouri and all the teams that are lower on this odds list need that level or amount of help on Friday and Saturday.
8. Wisconsin Badgers
This week: 33/1 odds
The Badgers have to beat Ohio State and then get the domino reaction of help from upsets across the country. They cannot rely on just a victory because they lost to Northwestern, a team that didn’t even qualify for a bowl.
9. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
This week: 40/1 odds
The Yellow Jackets must beat Florida State and then get the tidal wave of upsets in all the other big games. They can’t just get some; they need all the possible upsets on the board to happen.
Tie, 10. Arizona Wildcats
This week: 50/1 odds
The Wildcats are in the same basic spot as Georgia Tech, Missouri, and Wisconsin this week. It’s really that simple. Arizona must beat Oregon and then hope for a lot of chaos.
Tie, 10. Kansas State Wildcats
This week: 50/1 odds
The Wildcats have to beat Baylor on the road, which won’t be easy at all… and then they need the same collection of upset losses to fall in their lap, a perfect storm that will shake up the college football season in a way we can’t even imagine right now.
