The UCF Knights (8-3, 4-1) will go to meet the East Carolina Pirates (8-3, 2-0) this week in a battle between two good teams. This game will feature the nation’s fourth-leading passer, Shane Carden (3,622 yards, 22 TDs). It will begin Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN.
East Carolina beat Tulsa 49-32 last week. Carden had a huge game through the air in the win, completing 28 of 41 passes for 338 yards, four TDs and one interception. Chris Hairston had 91 yards on six carries. UCF defeated South Florida 16-0 in last week’s game. Rannell Hall had a solid game, racking up 84 total yards and a TD. He did most of his damage on the ground, putting up 65 yards and a score. Breshad Perriman finished with 55 yards and a TD on six receptions.
The Pirates, a six-point favorite, will be looking to hold down their home field when UCF comes to town. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at 55 points. Sitting at 8-3 Straight Up (SU) and 5-6 Against The Spread (ATS), the Pirates will look to improve as they head into Week 15. In the past five games, East Carolina is 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS. Lately, the Pirates have put on a show offensively, averaging 519.6 total yards in the last five games. Averaging just 18 points per road game, UCF might struggle against the Pirates defense. Expect the Knights to have a tough time running against the seventh-ranked Pirates run defense, which gives up just 103.4 yards per game on the ground. The Knights need to put emphasis on preparing for East Carolina’s sneaky defense. They currently average the 25th-most interceptions with 1.2 per game. The Knights should put East Carolina away early because the Pirates are one of the top teams at putting points on the board during the fourth quarter of home games. So far this year, they’ve averaged 12.4 fourth-quarter points at home.
On the other side, the Knights head into Week 15 with records of 7-4 ATS and 8-3 SU. Over their last five games, the Knights have a SU and ATS record of 4-1 for those betting with them. UCF has made opposing defenses pay as of late, averaging 32 points per game over the last five games. This improved stretch brought its season average to 27.8 PPG. Averaging 174.2 rushing yards over their last five games, UCF’s running backs have really turned it on as of late. For the season, they’ve only averaged 130.7 yards per game. Over the last five games, the Knights turned it up on the defensive side of the football as well, only allowing an average of 13 PPG. Their season average is 16.8 points, so they’ve shown a marked improvement. The UCF defense has given opposing running backs nightmares this season. Opponents average just 105 rushing yards per game against this intimidating group.
Predictions: SU Winner – UCF, ATS Winner – UCF, O/U – Under
Notes
Central Florida is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games.
East Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Florida’s last 6 games on the road.
East Carolina is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games.
Central Florida is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of East Carolina’s last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Central Florida’s last 6 games when playing East Carolina.
East Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Central Florida is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing East Carolina.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of East Carolina’s last 9 games at home.
Central Florida is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against East Carolina.
East Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Central Florida.
East Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Central Florida.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of East Carolina’s last 6 games when playing Central Florida.
East Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Central Florida.
UCF is 8-0 SU when leading at the half this season. East Carolina is 7-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
UCF is 7-0 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. East Carolina is 6-0 SU when leading after three quarters.
UCF is 3-1 SU this season in games where it wins the turnover battle, and 3-2 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
East Carolina is 3-1 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and only 1-2 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
The UCF defense has forced an average of 2.4 turnovers per game this season, but East Carolina is 5-1 SU when turning the ball over at least 2 times in a game.
UCF has drawn an average of 8.7 penalties on opponents this season, but East Carolina is 6-1 SU when penalized at least 8 times in a game.
Among all FBS teams, the East Carolina offensive passing game is ranked third in the nation, while the UCF pass defense is only ranked sixth. The Knights passing attack is ranked 67th, compared to the 107th-ranked pass defense of the Pirates.
The East Carolina rushing attack is ranked only 52nd nationally, while the UCF run defense is ranked ninth. The Knights rushing game is ranked just 106th, compared to the seventh-ranked run defense of the Pirates.
UCF has given up 21.8 points per game on the road, which is ranked 18th in the nation. East Carolina has put up 46.4 points per game at home (ranked seventh in FBS).
