The Cincinnati Bearcats (8-3) take on the Houston Cougars (7-4) looking to extend their six-game winning streak. This game will feature the AAC’s top passer, Gunner Kiel (2,820 yards, 28 TDs), and the second-leading rusher, Kenneth Farrow (796 yards, 11 TDs). It will begin Saturday at 12:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN or ESPN 2.
Cincinnati beat Temple 14-6 last week. Mekale McKay had a solid game in the win, totaling six receptions for 39 yards and one TD. Mike Boone put up 62 yards and a TD on 14 carries. Houston was able to pick up the win last week, winning easily over Southern Methodist 35-9 in their matchup. Farrow had an outstanding performance on the ground for the Cougars, running it 18 times for 110 yards and two TDs. Ryan Jackson finished with 63 yards on 11 attempts.
Cincinnati is a seven-point favorite against the Cougars. The teams combine to set the Over/Under (O/U) at 54 points. Sitting at 8-3 Straight Up (SU) and 7-4 Against The Spread (ATS), the Bearcats will look to improve as they head into Week 15. Things are trending in the right direction for Cincinnati, going 5-0 SU and ATS over its past five games. Cincinnati has kept their running game going like a well oiled machine lately, averaging 203.6 rushing yards during its last five matchups. The Cougars are matching up with Cincinnati’s defense at an inopportune time as well. Cincinnati usually allows 26.4 points per game, but over the last five that number has fallen to 16. During those last five games, Cincinnati’s opponents have struggled to do anything with the run game, only managing 98.0 rushing yards per contest. A major part of the game will be if the Cougars can protect their quarterback from Cincinnati’s hungry defense. It averages the 13th-most sacks at home with 3.2 per home game. Cincinnati has only earned an average of 4.6 penalties per game on the season, making them one of the least penalized teams in the nation (18th).
Over on the other sideline, the Cougars have 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS records this season. The Cougars went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS over the last five games. Offensively, they should be able to find paydirt quite often against the Bearcats, who are one of the worst home scoring defenses in the country at 32.4 points per game. The Bearcats may be catching the Cougars at the wrong time. They have found their groove on the ground, averaging 200.8 rushing yards during the past five games. Shifting to the other side of the ball, it might be tough for the Bearcats to keep up with Houston’s defense in a few areas. The Bearcats are matching up with Houston’s defense at an inopportune time. Over the last five games, Houston’s opponents have only averaged 209.0 yards through the air. The Bearcats need to recognize the importance of securing the ball against the turnover-minded Cougars. The defense ranks fifth in the country in turnovers with 2.7 per game. The Cougars will look to put the ball in the end zone against a Cincinnati defense that allows an average of 8.4 points in the third quarter, one of the worst marks in the nation.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOUS, ATS Winner – HOUS, O/U – Under
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Houston’s last 16 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games.
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 7 games on the road.
Cincinnati is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home.
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati.
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston.
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati.
Houston is 5-1 SU when leading at the half this season. Cincinnati is 8-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Houston is 6-0 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Cincinnati is 8-0 SU when leading after three quarters.
Houston is only 2-3 SU this season when turning the ball over more than its opponent.
Cincinnati is only 4-2 SU this season in games where it loses the turnover battle.
The Cincinnati defense has forced an average of 2.2 turnovers over its last five games, but Houston is 4-1 SU this season when turning the ball over at least 2 times in a game.
Since the beginning of last season, Cincinnati is 10-3 SU against AAC opponents, while Houston is 9-4 SU against conference foes.
According to national passing ranks, Houston has an advantage on both offense and defense. Its passing attack (ranked 82nd in the country) will face the 104th-ranked pass defense of Cincinnati, while its 11th-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 14th-ranked passing game of the Bearcats.
The Cincinnati passing attack is ranked first in the AAC, while the Houston pass defense is only ranked second. The Cougars passing game is ranked sixth, compared to the ninth-ranked pass defense of the Bearcats.
According to overall FBS team rankings, Houston is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its 55th-ranked rushing attack will face the 80th-ranked run defense of Cincinnati, while its 31st-ranked rush defense will look to contain the 71st-ranked running game of the Bearcats.
The Houston offensive ground attack is ranked second in the AAC this year, compared to the seventh-ranked rush defense of Cincinnati.
