The Miami Dolphins welcome the Baltimore Ravens to Sun Life Stadium this week. This game will feature the NFL’s fourth-leading rusher, Justin Forsett (1,009 yards, 7 TDs). It starts at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday and can be seen on CBS.
Miami got a close victory over New York 16-13 last week. Baltimore didn’t have the same success as Miami, losing in a close one against San Diego 34-33. Torrey Smith had a great game for the Ravens, recording six catches for 65 yards and two TDs. Forsett had a big game as well, totaling 106 yards on 24 carries.
The Dolphins, a three-point favorite, will be looking to hold down their home field when Baltimore comes to town. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at 44 points. The Dolphins enter the game with records of 7-5 both Straight Up (SU) and Against The Spread (ATS) this season. Over their last five games, the Dolphins have records of 3-2 both SU and ATS. Holes can be found in Baltimore’s pass defense, which allows a completion percentage of 66.7% to its opponents. Recently, the Dolphins have really been causing problems for their opponents. During its last five games, Miami has only given up 16 points, much less than its season average of 19.3 points. Expect the Dolphins defense to really restrict Baltimore’s aerial assault. The Dolphins have the second-ranked pass defense in the NFL and give up only 198.2 passing yards per game. The Ravens will need to stop Miami’s defense from stripping the ball in order to be successful in this game. The Dolphins rank fourth in fumbles recovered with one per home game. In the third quarter, Miami is tough as nails, putting up a league-leading 11.6 points during the third frame of home games. Don’t expect many blunders and oversights from Miami that could cost them the game. It’s one of the least penalized teams in the NFL (fifth) when playing in their home city, averaging only 4.4 penalties per game.
On the other side, the Ravens have a record of 7-5 both ATS and SU. The Ravens went 2-3 both SU and ATS over the last five games. Baltimore has found a lot of success on the ground. Its 131.5 rushing yards per game ranks fifth in the NFL. The Baltimore run defense has given teams headaches during the past five games. During that time, opponents have gained an average of only 84.6 rushing yards against this frightening unit. The Ravens should look out for bad ball security against the Dolphins, who rank 27th in the league in fumbles lost per game at home with one. The Ravens generally save their best for last, averaging 8.8 points in the fourth quarter. Miami’s special teams has given up some big plays this season, possibly enticing the Ravens to work a little extra on the return game. The Dolphins allow 118.1 return yards per game, ranking 31st in the NFL.
Predictions: SU Winner – MIA, ATS Winner – BAL, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami’s last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore’s last 7 games on the road.
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami’s last 10 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 6 games when playing Miami.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami’s last 6 games when playing Baltimore.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore’s last 9 games when playing on the road against Miami.
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore.
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore.
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami’s last 9 games when playing at home against Baltimore.
Baltimore is 5-1 SU when leading at the half this season. Miami is 4-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Baltimore is 6-1 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Miami is 6-2 SU when leading after three quarters.
This season, Baltimore is 3-2 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and an even 2-2 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
Miami is 4-1 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle this year, and only 2-3 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
Miami is winless (0-3 SU) this season when allowing at least 3 sacks in a game. The Baltimore defense is averaging 3.2 sacks over its last five games.
When it comes to passing this season, Miami is rated higher on both sides of the ball. Its 22nd-ranked passing attack will face the 31st-ranked pass defense of Baltimore, while its second-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 16th-ranked passing game of the Ravens.
Baltimore is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its fifth-ranked rushing attack will face the 20th-ranked run defense of Miami, while its fourth-ranked run defense will look to contain the 10th-ranked rushing game of the Dolphins.
Baltimore has given up 25.8 points per contest on the road, which is ranked 18th in the league. Miami has put up 26.2 points per game at home (ranked 11th overall).
Miami has only allowed 18.0 points per game at home this year, which is ranked ninth in the NFL. The Baltimore offense has averaged 27.5 points per contest on the road (ranked third overall).
