The Brigham Young Cougars (8-4) and the Memphis Tigers (9-3) battle it out for the opportunity to close out the season with a win in the Miami Beach Bowl on Monday. The game will begin Monday at 2:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN.
In its last game, Memphis blew out Connecticut 41-10. Keiwone Malone had a huge game in the victory, totaling seven receptions for 70 yards and two TDs. Paxton Lynch had 194 yards and four TDs through the air. Brigham Young defeated California 42-35 in its last game before the bye. Jordan Leslie had a big game for the Cougars, recording five catches for 155 yards and two TDs. Christian Stewart also had a big game with 433 yards and five TDs through the air.
Memphis is a narrow one-point favorite at home against the Cougars. The teams combine to set the Over/Under (O/U) at 56 points. Heading into Week 17 of the college football season, the Tigers are 9-3 Straight Up (SU) and 7-5 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last five games, the Tigers have records of 5-0 SU and 2-3 ATS. A big source of success this season is the passing game, where the Tigers complete 64.0% of their passes. The Cougars are matching up with Memphis’s defense at an inopportune time. Memphis usually allows 17.1 points per game, but over the last five that number has fallen to 14. The Cougars will have to figure out what to do against the 24th-best home run defense in the land. The Tigers give up only 105.7 rushing yards per game at home. One of the keys to the game will be if the Cougars can protect the ball against the takeaway vultures of the Tigers, whose defense ranks 13th in the nation with 2.2 turnovers per game. The Tigers should be able to pounce on Brigham Young’s struggles during the second quarter, when they give up 10.3 points per game. Judging from Brigham Young’s past performances in away games, the Tigers may have an edge in the penalty department. The Cougars earn an average of 8.8 per game, making them one of the most-penalized teams in the nation.
As for their opponent, the Cougars head into Week 17 with records of 5-7 ATS and 8-4 SU. Over their last five games, the Cougars have a SU record of 4-1 and a 3-2 record ATS for those betting with them. If earlier games are any indication, the Cougars will throw the ball a lot on offense. They average 275 passing yards per road game, good enough for 25th in Division I. Lately, the Cougars have discovered the secret to a better pass defense. They’re allowing only 233.2 passing YPG over their last five matchups. The Tigers can’t give the ball away to the turnover-minded Cougars. The Brigham Young defense generates 2.3 turnovers per away game, 19th in the country. Special teams usually provides a spark for Brigham Young when they play on the road. They average the 25th-most road return yards in the land with 35.5.
Predictions: SU Winner – MEM, ATS Winner – MEM, O/U – Under
Notes
BYU is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games.
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
BYU is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis’s last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of BYU’s last 9 games.
Brigham Young is 5-1 SU when leading at the half this season. Memphis is 8-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Brigham Young is 7-2 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Memphis is 9-0 SU when leading at the end of the third quarter.
Brigham Young is undefeated this season (3-0 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, and 4-3 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
Memphis is undefeated 4-1 SU in games where it comes out ahead in the turnover battle, and 2-1 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
Nationally, the Memphis passing attack is ranked 63rd, while the Brigham Young pass defense is only ranked 111th. The Cougars passing game is ranked 33rd, compared to the 49th-ranked pass defense of the Tigers.
The Memphis rushing attack is ranked only 41st nationally, while the Brigham Young run defense is ranked 14th. The Cougars run game is ranked just 42nd, compared to the 24th-ranked rush defense of the Tigers.
Brigham Young has given up 24.2 points per contest on the road, which is ranked 28th in the nation. Memphis has put up 39.2 points per game at home (ranked 21st in FBS).
