The NBA MVP award isn’t decided until the end of the season but with a quarter of the season in the books, it isn’t too early to look at the frontrunners so far. Last year’s winner Kevin Durant has missed a ton of the action due to injury and that, combined with a slow start from LeBron James, has opened the door for a trio of rising stars to get an early look. Does that mean that they’re the favorites to win the MVP this season while LeBron and Durant are on the outside looking in?
Stephen Curry – Golden State Warriors
The Warriors own the best record in the NBA at 21-3 and there is no bigger reason for their outstanding start than the play of early MVP candidate Stephen Curry. Curry has averaged a team-leading 23.5 points, 7.6 assists, and 1.9 steals for Golden State while also posting the league’s best RPM WAR and third-best WARP. While he did struggle in the team’s latest loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, Curry had been a major factor during the team’s 16-game winning streak, which included knocking down 34 points in a season-high 40 minutes in the 16th win in that streak.
It will be interesting to see how they perform this holiday season with a healthy Oklahoma City Thunder squad and the Los Angeles Clippers on the schedule. The loss to the Grizzlies was definitely disheartening.
While Klay Thompson, Andrew Bogut, and Draymond Green have all been playing at a high level for Golden State, no player has been better than Curry. That’s why he tops the list of our early season MVP candidates.
James Harden – Houston Rockets
Any talk about the early MVP candidates has to include Harden, who has put up nearly identical value metrics to the ones posted by Curry early on. Harden has recorded a 4.7 win share mark compared to Curry’s 4.6 while Curry’s 7.8 value over replacement is slightly better than Harden’s 7.6 mark. Harden is second in WARP and second in RPM WAR and if things continue this way it could come down to these two when trying to determine the MVP.
Golden State has the better record right now but Harden has stepped up his play with Dwight Howard out to post a team-leading 26.3 points, 6.7 assists, and 2.0 steals per game and the Rockets are right there behind the Warriors in the Western Conference standings.
One of the main reasons he deserves consideration is because his defense has improved drastically. He’s really playing well at both ends of the court with is a drastic change from previous seasons where he was a huge defensive liability.
There is a lot that can change the rest of the way but right now Harden deserves as much consideration as any other player as an early season MVP candidate.
Anthony Davis – New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans might not clinch a playoff spot this year but there is a case to be made for the 21-year-old Davis as a potential MVP. Davis leads the league in WARP and win shares, and the 33.1 PER he has posted would be the best in NBA history if he can maintain his level of play the rest of the season. The bottom line is that Davis has registered his gaudy statistics in spite of the team he plays for. How horrendous would they be if he wasn’t around? And if the Pelicans played in the Eastern Conference, they would be on track to make the playoffs as the seventh seed.
It’s not enough to dismiss Davis’ MVP candidacy based on whether or not New Orleans gets in. It will be interesting to see how the voters handle the situation if he manages to maintain his current pace and play out the rest of the season at such an incredible level.
