In their last game of the season, the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers clash at Georgia Dome in an NFC South Week 17 matchup. Key players to watch in this game are the NFL’s fourth-leading passer, Ryan (4,434 yards, 28 TDs), and second-leading receiver, Jones (1,535 yards, 6 TDs). Things don’t seem likely to get better any time soon for struggling Atlanta, as they have lost two of their last three. The game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday and can be seen on FOX.
The last meeting between the Falcons and Panthers came in Week 11 when Carolina got nipped by Atlanta 19-17. Benjamin had a great outing for Carolina in that game, hauling in nine balls for 109 yards and one TD.
The Falcons, a three-point favorite, will be looking to hold down their home field when Carolina comes to town. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at 48 points. Sitting at 6-9 Straight Up (SU) and 7-8 Against The Spread (ATS), the Falcons will look to improve as they head into Week 17. Over their last five games, the Falcons have records of 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS. They should be excited to have the Panthers and their 30th-ranked scoring defense come into town. Their Swiss cheese defense gives up an average of 30.4 points per away game. There is a good chance Atlanta will keep the ball in the air. They have the league’s second-ranked home passing attack, averaging 309.6 yards per game. Recently, Atlanta’s run stoppers have wreaked havoc on their opponents. During their last five games, the Falcons gave up 95.6 rushing yards per game. It is critical for the Panthers to prepare for Atlanta’s big-play defense, which ranks fourth in the league with 1.9 turnovers per game. In the first quarter, Atlanta is tough as nails, putting up 6.4 points in the first 15 minutes.
Across the field, the Panthers head into Week 17 with records of 7-8 ATS and 6-8-1 SU. The Panthers went 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS over the last five games. They come into the game averaging 20.3 points per game, but expect those numbers to rise. The Falcons give up an average of 24 points at home, making them one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Odds are Carolina will rely on its passing attack against a defense that allows 290.6 passing yards per game, worst in the league. The Falcons may want to check what’s in Carolina’s coolers when they match up this week. The Panthers are playing better defense than they have all year, only allowing 18 PPG over their last five games, which is well under their season average of 24.7 points. The Falcons are matching up with Carolina’s pass defense at an inopportune time. Over the last five games, opponents only averaged 175.2 yards through the air, lower than Carolina’s season average of 228 yards. Atlanta needs to keep its intensity through the fourth quarter against the Panthers, who average 7.9 points in the final 15 minutes of regulation. Carolina tends to run a lot of plays during games, averaging 67.4 offensive snaps for fifth-most in the league.
Predictions: SU Winner – ATL, ATS Winner – ATL, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 11 games.
Atlanta is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games.
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Carolina.
Atlanta is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Carolina.
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina.
Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta.
Carolina is 5-0-1 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Atlanta is 6-3 SU when leading after three quarters.
Atlanta is winless this season (0-5 SU) in games where it loses the turnover battle.
The Atlanta passing attack is ranked fifth in the league, while the Carolina pass defense is only ranked ninth. The Panthers’ passing game is ranked 19th, compared to the 32nd-ranked pass defense of the Falcons.
Carolina has allowed 30.4 points per game on the road, which is ranked only 30th in the league. Atlanta has scored 28.6 points per contest at home (ranked sixth overall).
