The loss of forward Serge Ibaka has put the Oklahoma City Thunder in a very difficult position in the Western Conference Finals. This series is all about the Thunder’s ability to find different lineup combinations that can minimize the impact of Ibaka’s absence, and to find ways of overcoming their weaknesses against a powerful opponent.
Why The Thunder Can Win:
Their best players are capable of winning this series. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are elite basketball players, the best of the best. When they’re both playing at the top of their game, they can beat San Antonio. They just didn’t play their best in Game 1 on Monday night. To be more specific, they didn’t play their best at the same time. Westbrook was really good in some portions of the game, and Durant was really good at other times, but the Thunder did not get a complete 1-2 punch for most of the contest, and especially not in the fourth quarter. The Thunder need both players to hit a higher percentage of shots within 15 feet of the basket. Durant left a few relatively easy shots off the mark in the fourth quarter. In the first half, Westbrook’s mid-range jump shot was not where it needed to be. The Thunder have to get both of these players to max out in San Antonio. That’s how Oklahoma City is going to get the road win it needs to win this series. This is a tough assignment to be sure, but if any people can pull it off, it’s the Westbrook-Durant combination. These guys know how to step it up when it counts, especially against the Spurs two years ago in the same Western Conference Finals series.
Why The Spurs Can Win:
Their opponent is missing an extremely important piece. Serge Ibaka was the guy who was able to play both inside and outside better than anyone else on the Thunder. The forward was able to hit midrange jump shots, but he was also able to block shots and provide interior defense as a rim protector and a helpside presence. Ibaka cleaned up a lot of messes the Thunder faced on defense. He solved so many of this team’s problems. On Monday night in Game 1 of this series, people saw how valuable Ibaka was to the Thunder. There was not a man ready to get to the basket on defense, stopping dribble penetration from Tony Parker or backcuts from guys like Kawhi Leonard or Marco Belinelli. The Spurs were able to get to the rim with impunity. They were able to spread out Oklahoma City’s defense, get action going to the basket, and not pay a price. Oklahoma City’s defense is going to operate at a severe and sustained disadvantage in this series. In San Antonio, the Spurs should be able to exhibit the rhythm and flow they expect to get out of their halfcourt offense.
Outlook
This feels like a game in which Westbrook and Durant will play better than they did in Game 1. That will make this game close and enable Oklahoma City to cover the number. San Antonio, though, will still make enough plays on offense to win the game.
Pick: Thunder +6
