Six open head coaching positions may seem like a lot, but in recent NFL history it’s barely average. Last year five head coaches were sent packing on “Black Monday.” Two years ago, seven coaches were shown the door. Seven more guys got the boot in 2011. So, having six open jobs in the offseason is actually low-normal and, when you consider that two of these jobs – the Bills and 49ers – were coaching positions where a successful guy just walked away, it’s downright weird.
There’s a nightmare scenario for all these open jobs and his name is Josh McDaniels. If you want a guy to completely decimate your team, run off your star players, draft a Tim Tebow in the first round and get busted for running his own SpyGate again, then McDaniels is your guy. If only Roger Goodell had done the right thing and banned McDaniels and Bill Belichick for life after busting them the first time, your team wouldn’t be in danger. But Goodell is a lapdog and a putz and now your team could be ruined any moment with McDaniels’ stink all over it. I’m sorry. I wish I could help.
So, as I compile this list of NFL head coaching jobs, know that I’m putting coaches with teams based on logic, availability, talent and need. Because of that Josh McDaniels is nowhere on this list.
Spoiler alert: Mike Smith and Marc Trestmen aren’t on it either.
New York Jets
The guy: Doug Marrone, former head coach Buffalo Bills
The next best guy: Gary Kubiak, current offensive coordinator Baltimore Ravens
Thanks to fired General Manager John Idzik, the Jets have the worst roster in football and whoever gets this job has his hands full with a full rebuilding project on his hands. Because of that New York needs a guy that’s been a head coach before and Marrone, after opting out of his contract with the Bills, is the perfect guy for the job.
Marrone was the offensive line coach for the Jets in 2004 and even though reports came out Tuesday that he didn’t “close the deal” with Jets owner Woody Johnson, Marrone should still be the guy. If they can’t get a deal together, Kubiak should be their next choice but he might not be available to interview until February.[divider]
Oakland Raiders
The guy: Todd Bowles, current defensive coordinator Arizona Cardinals
The next best guy: Dan Quinn, current defensive coordinator Seattle Seahawks
To be competitive, the first thing the Raiders need to build is a defense that can rush the passer and protect the deep pass in the secondary. Both the guys I listed here can do just that. Bowles gets the edge because he built his defense with less talent than Quinn has in Seattle. Quinn is still coaching and, like Kubiak, will probably be coaching for at least three more games, so Bowles not only has earned a head coaching job, but is ready to take over today.
Bowles is going to be a hot commodity in this coaching class and will most likely get interviewed by every team with an opening. He’s as good as gone from Arizona and, if the Raiders’ ownership can keep from firing him four games into next season, they could have the chance to begin building a real NFL team.[divider]
Chicago Bears
The guy: Mike Shanahan, former Super Bowl winning Denver Broncos Head Coach (and Redskins sacrificial goat)
The next best guy: Frank Reich, current offensive coordinator San Diego Chargers
The Bears have invested too much money in Jay Cutler to cut him loose yet and Shanahan is the perfect guy to get most out of their apathetic signal caller. Not only can Shanahan rejuvenate Cutler, he can placate Brandon Marshall, after all he drafted both of them in Denver. And when running behind a Shanahan offensive line, Matt Forte will be back in the Pro Bowl and atop every Fantasy Football draft board.
Shanahan is such a no-brainer choice for Chicago, that something will probably screw it up. If that happens, Frank Reich is your next best choice. Chargers QB Philip Rivers has never been better since Reich took over the offense and the former Bills back-up was always a guy that maxed out his own ability. He could do the same for Cutler.[divider]
Buffalo Bills
The guy: Dan Quinn, current defensive coordinator Seattle Seahawks
The next best guy: Jim Schwartz, current defensive coordinator, Bills
The Bills are going to have to wait to pull the trigger on Quinn, but he’ll be worth it. Buffalo’s defense is the strength of a young team and there’s no reason to screw with that. Quinn walks in with a Super Bowl ring (maybe two in a few weeks) and instant respect from a team that proved to be a headache to every top quarterback they faced.
The reason they were that headache was, of course, the defense led by current DC Jim Schwartz. Schwartz was fired by the Lions just a year ago and deserved to be. The fact that Jim Caldwell, of all people, took that same team to the playoffs this year and won 11 games proves that if nothing else does. But it doesn’t change the fact that Schwartz specifically helped keep Buffalo in the playoff hunt right until the final weeks of the season. Maybe he’s ready to make up for his mistakes in Detroit.[divider]
San Francisco 49ers
The guy: Adam Gase, current offensive coordinator Denver Broncos
The next best guy: Darrell Bevell, current offensive coordinator Seattle Seahawks
The 49ers may be at the top of most people’s coaching lists, but the reason they’re No. 2 to me is the very reason they need a top-notch offensive mind to take over the team. San Francisco is stuck with Colin Kaepernick and, as he proved all through this past season, that could be bad news for the franchise. Gase is going to be a head coach somewhere and only missed out last year because he couldn’t interview until February and had his offense shown up in the Super Bowl.
Frankly, I think he’ll be available a little earlier this offseason and will probably have his pick of jobs. Gase, after working with Peyton Manning, may be the guy that can turn Kaepernick into a real quarterback and develop the skill-set to put the 49ers back in the playoffs.
Bevell is your second choice because of the style Kaepernick already has. Comparing Kaepernick to Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is such an insult to Wilson it hardly seems fair these days, but two seasons ago it was one everyone was making. Maybe Bevell can do something with Kaepernick to at least turn him into a pale imitation of Seattle’s franchise guy.[divider]
Atlanta Falcons
The guy: Rex Ryan, former Head Coach New York Jets
The next best guy: Todd Bowles, current defensive coordinator Arizona Cardinals
The Falcons job is the best opening in the NFL. Not only is Atlanta already loaded on offense, with a franchise quarterback and two franchise wide receivers already on the roster, the NFC South is there for the taking. The next coach of the Falcons will be handed that division and a playoff spot with even a half-decent coaching job. In New York, Ryan never could get an offense together to go with his defense, which was always good to great. In Atlanta, he wouldn’t even have to build one. Pick up a running back like Todd Gurley in the draft, then set about building the great defense that Ryan always seems able to put on the field.
Bowles and Quinn are the only guys to appear on my list twice (even though all these men will be interviewed by multiple teams) because they’re the best coordinator-to-head coach candidates in this year’s crop. Bowles is the second choice for the Falcons for the same reason Ryan is the top choice. The Falcons need a defense. Bowles and Ryan both can build one quick out of scraps. Ryan gets the nod from me, but the Falcons go 10-6 or better next year with either guy in charge.
