Each week, we will be projecting what our current top-eight seeds would look like if the NCAA Tournament started that day, with brief analysis of what the top four seeds need to do to stay where they are. Projections and rankings are only as current as the time of publishing.
#1 Seeds: Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Wisconsin
Analysis: This week’s top seeds feature three of the top four RPI teams in college basketball, as well as the first four in the KenPom rankings. Kentucky is an obvious choice for our top overall seed, as the Wildcats have beaten Kansas, Texas, North Carolina and Louisville convincingly.
Until UK loses, expect them to hang onto this spot, and even with a loss, it’s hard to imagine them slipping off of the top line. Duke’s resume also shows wins against Michigan State, a dominating victory over Temple and a road win at Wisconsin. As of Wednesday afternoon, the Blue Devils sat at the No. 5 spot in RPI and No. 3 in KenPom. Due to the strength of the ACC, it’s reasonable to think that Duke could afford three conference losses without losing their spot among the No. 1 seeds for March.
Up next is Virginia, KenPom’s second ranked team and No. 3 in RPI rankings. Road wins at Maryland, VCU and Miami will help come March, and with the aforementioned strength of the conference, we expect Virginia to pick up even more. A win at Notre Dame would take the pressure off of winning in Louisville, Durham and Chapel Hill, but that’s not to say that the Cavaliers aren’t capable doing getting it all done.
Wisconsin takes the final top seed, thanks to the strength of their road win at California and neutral court advantage over surging Oklahoma. While KenPom has the Badgers ranked fourth, their RPI is down at No. 8 as of publishing. With the Big Ten not quite being as daunting as we thought it might be, Wisconsin likely has less wiggle room than their peers on the one-seed line for letdowns.
#2 Seeds: Villanova, Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas
Analysis: Wins over VCU, Temple, Butler and St. John’s continue to look better and better for Villanova. The Wildcats are ranked No. 5 in KenPom and No. 6 in RPI, with trips to Georgetown, Butler and Providence left on the schedule. Their loss to Seton Hall being on the road will help things should the Pirates go through some mid-season struggles, but they’ll need to avoid losses to the mush-mess in the middle of the Big East to keep their spot here, should they drop those three road trips.
Gonzaga, with their predicted finish of No. 4 in the RPI, is also loved by KenPom who has them No. 6 as of Wednesday afternoon. The Zags have a host of road and neutral court wins to help them come Selection Sunday, and their road loss to Arizona will always help prop up their computer numbers. Still, and we talk about this every year, Mark Few and would be wise to not take any chances with a resume busting upset in conference play.
Other than their close win over San Diego State on a neutral floor, Arizona’s resume still looks a bit thin in spots. Obviously the Aztecs still have a chance to turn their season around and get back to being the team we all thought they were, but if they don’t, then Arizona is suddenly looking at slim pickings (outside of Utah and Stanford) for high-level wins in conference play. Still, the Wildcats are most people’s favorite in the Pac-12, and they’ll get two shots at the Utes.
By far the most divisive team on this line, Kansas, is No. 2 in RPI but No. 19 in KenPom. The Jayhawks are 3-2 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Utah, Georgetown and Michigan State. Upcoming contests against Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor should prove pivotal when figuring whether or not KU can stay on this seed line.
#3 Seeds: Louisville, Utah, West Virginia, Oklahoma
Analysis: By far, this is the most fickle seed line, as the Utes still show some promise to move up with some key wins over the likes of Arizona, Washington and Stanford.
Louisville is still looking for a headlining win but also hasn’t suffered anything to be confused with a bad loss, so they could move up or down. West Virginia’s loss to LSU is viewed in different ways, but whether or not they keep pace with a loaded Big 12 remains to be seen.
Oklahoma started off slow, but has surged as of late, and should they push for a Big 12 title, there’s no reason to think they can’t take Kansas’ spot on the two-seed line. All in all, the RPI and KenPom don’t agree with each other on anyone but Utah here.
#4 Seeds: Texas, Maryland, VCU, Seton Hall
Analysis: Another fickle seed line here, as Texas has lost two of their last four games, against Stanford and Oklahoma. If they want to stay here, now would be a good time for them to find their rhythm, as four of their next six games are on the road in conference play. That would help, as neither computer is high on the Longhorns at the moment.
Maryland on the other hand, has experienced a long aand steady rise to this spot. The Terps already went on the road to Michigan State, which means that trips to Indiana, Ohio State and Iowa are the toughest road trips that remain, and all are winnable for them.
While VCU is No. 4 in RPI, they’re at No. 13 in KenPom and are expected to drop in both, as the Atlantic 10 won’t provide much help in the computers. Seton Hall is a completely different story. The RPI doesn’t exactly expect them to keep up their high level of play, but if they do, they should feel comfortable right here on the four-seed line.
#5 Seeds: Iowa State, Notre Dame, Wichita State, Iowa
#6 Seeds: North Carolina, St. John’s, Butler, Ohio State
#7 Seeds: Colorado State, Northern Iowa, Georgetown, Baylor
#8 Seeds: Temple, San Diego State, George Washington, Stanford
