Currently there are 117 electoral democracies in the world and they all, presumably, have a man or woman elected to office that can run the place. If he or she can’t, then they’ll be voted out and replaced by someone who can. You can argue politics and such, but, in general, these 117 world leaders can do their job.
There are 32 teams in the National Football League. There are not 32 starting-caliber NFL quarterbacks currently alive on planet Earth. I’m not talking about super star quarterbacks or elite quarterbacks. I’m talking about men that can competently play the position, week in and week out, of starting quarterback in the NFL. There aren’t 32 of them. There aren’t even 20 of them. I count about 16 guys* that fit the bill, so that leaves half the NFL with either major questions at the QB position or with just a flat-out disaster behind center.
There are several teams, seven in fact, that need to come out of this draft with a real quarterback prospect. And while the field is always full of guys who had successful college careers, there are only so many that can actually do the job. If Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles and Derek Carr all pan out from last year’s draft, they’ll increase the number of competent QBs in the league by 24 percent. If you don’t have a quarterback, as the Arizona Cardinals proved in their playoff loss last weekend, you don’t have anything.
Of the 26 Division I prospects entering the draft this season, only seven appear to have any real NFL talent at all. And, sure, you could have said the same about Tony Romo, Kurt Warner and Tom Brady heading into their drafts (Romo and Warner weren’t even drafted), but all these guys will wind up on a team, drafted late or signing as undrafted free agents. They’ll all get their shots to prove me wrong. I hope they do. Just having 16 competent quarterbacks isn’t enough.
Of those seven guys I’ve picked, two – Garrett Grayson from Colorado State and Shane Carden of East Carolina – are career back-ups. That’s fine. They’ll have long NFL careers and make plenty of money. But they aren’t potential stars, and trust me, when we’re talking about drafting a quarterback, they aren’t looking for guys to hold a clipboard. They’re looking for the franchise.
One of these guys is a Johnny Manziel-sized dumpster fire ready to consume any franchise that drafts him. Another probably shouldn’t be on the list because he hasn’t officially declared for the draft yet and, if anything, is leaning toward staying in school. But we draft for potential at every position, even the most important one in all of sports. And these five guys have it.
5. Bryce Petty, Redshirt Senior, Baylor, 6-3, 230
Projected round: 3
Who will draft him: St. Louis Rams, Round 2
Petty has the prototypical size and arm strength NFL scouts look for and in his two years starting for the Bears, has the stats and big-time wins to be worth a higher pick than the third round. Petty set a record in a losing effort in the Cotton Bowl, throwing for 550 yards and three touchdowns. His senior season saw victories over No. 9 TCU, No. 15 Oklahoma and No. 9 Kansas State as well as Texas and Oklahoma State.
Petty can play big in big games and protects the ball, throwing only 10 interceptions in his entire college career.
4. Brett Hundley, UCLA, Redshirt Junior, 6-3, 227
Projected round: 1 or 2
Who will draft him: Philadelphia Eagles, Round 1
Hundely would have probably been a first round pick last year and there are probably people in Cleveland right now that wish he’d not come back for his junior season. Hundely might have the biggest arm of all the top prospects and adds athleticism and playmaking ability outside the pocket.
Hundley also played in a pro-style offense for a former pro coach at UCLA and that should make a difference in how quickly he can adapt to the NFL game. Hundley is another guy that will protect the ball, only throwing five picks this season to go with his 22 touchdowns.
3. Dak Prescott, Mississippi State, junior, 6-2, 235
Projected round: 1 or 2
Who will draft him: Arizona Cardinals, Round 1
I’m cheating a little on Prescott, who still hasn’t made his decision to leave Mississippi State. Just last week Prescott was reportedly staying in school but made a point Monday to deny that report, letting every pro scout know he hasn’t made up his mind. Prescott has no reason to stay in school and, for my money, has the potential to be better than all five of his fellow prospects on this list.
Prescott’s break-out season came with nearly 1,000 rushing yards (986 to be exact), but that should in no way diminish his ability as a pocket passer. The only guy of these five that compares with Prescott’s field vision is Petty. This kid is ready to start from Day One and will only build on that resume if he stays in school where he would most likely be the No. 1 pick coming out next year. He’d also go to a much worse team. Best to come on out this season and get with a contender.
2. Jameis Winston, Florida State, Redshirt Sophomore, 6-4, 232
Projected round: 1
Who will draft him: New York Jets, Round 1
Winston was the most controversial player in this draft before he even declared Wednesday. Winston has all the skills needed to be a success at the NFL level except the brain power and maturity to actually do it. He’s a disaster waiting to happen and getting picked by the Jets will be the worst possible thing to happen to him. Winston is a nightmare off the field and New York will consume him.
That all being said, the potential is all there; the arm strength, the accuracy, the size, the play in big games (outside the Rose Bowl) Winston fits every physical requirement to play NFL Football. Johnny Manziel did too and we all see how that’s turning out and compared to Winston, Manziel could be elected Pope. Winston is a pox on an NFL house, a Biblical tribulation that will only result in rending of garments and gnashing of teeth. The GM and coach who draft him should immediately be fired the minute they turn in the card. But they won’t be… not until Winston flames out three years from now taking every seafood buffet in New York and New Jersey with him.
1. Marcus Mariota, Oregon, Redshirt Junior, 6-4, 215
Projected round: 1
Who will draft him: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Round 1
I like Prescott better, Hundley is more pro-ready and Winston would be the better prospect if he wasn’t a complete fool off the field, but Marcus Mariota is a freak of nature and what he can do leading a football team and playing quarterback can not be denied.
Mariota won the Heisman Trophy, beat Florida State in the Rose Bowl, beat Stanford, beat UCLA, beat Michigan State and had a statistical renaissance your little brother couldn’t reproduce on his Xbox One. Mariota has thrown 103 touchdowns in his three years as a starter for Oregon and only 13 interceptions. He only threw three this year to go with his 40 touchdowns. Oh, and he ran for 15 more to go along with 731 yards on the ground. A specimen like Mariota comes along once in a lifetime. Who knows what he’ll turn into in the NFL, but you’ve got take the chance that he can produce 90 percent of that as a pro. Mariota can be the quarterback everybody thought Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III would be before defensive coordinators figured out they couldn’t make pass reads. Mariota is No. 1 on this list and no one else is close.
*(1. Tom Brady, 2. Ryan Tannehill, 3. Joe Flacco, 4. Ben Roethlisberger, 5. Andrew Luck, 6. Alex Smith, 7. Peyton Manning, 8. Philip Rivers, 9. Tony Romo, 10. Eli Manning, 11. Matthew Stafford, 12. Aaron Rodgers, 13. Matt Ryan, 14. Cam Newton, 15. Drew Brees, 16. Russell Wilson)
