There are some jacked-up lines this weekend in the divisional round playoff games. These are the eight best teams in the NFL, vying for the Vince Lombardi Trophy, a championship ring, and eternal legendary status. These are the biggest and best games of the season, yet the lines make it look like Vern Troyer is challenging Floyd Mayweather Jr. to a Taipei Deathmatch.
All the home teams are favored, three of them by a touchdown or more. But we know that all the home teams likely aren’t going to win. Add to that the fact that only two No. 1 seeds have advanced to play each other in the Super Bowl in the last 21 years and, ironically, Peyton Manning was on the losing end of both games (2010 – Saints vs Colts and 2014 – Seahawks vs Broncos).
I know I promised you a few weeks ago we weren’t going to be doing any math, and we won’t, but we’re going to be talking numbers here and there are plenty of them factoring into this weekend’s games.
SATURDAY
Ravens at Patriots [-7]
Since being busted for SpyGate in 2007, the New England Patriots have made the playoffs seven times in eight years. In that eight year span they have a 6-6 record, lost two Super Bowls, and have been one-and-done twice. Five of their six playoff victories were over teams that came into the playoffs with winning records. The quarterbacks of three of those six teams were Tim Tebow, T.J. Yates and David Garrard.
The other three quarterbacks were Andrew Luck last season in the divisional round, Philip Rivers in the 2007 divisional round that he was playing on a torn ACL, and Joe Flacco in 2011 when Lee Evans dropped a Flacco TD pass that would have won it and Billy Cundiff auto-erotically asphyxiated himself while missing a 32-yard chip shot field goal that would have sent the game into overtime.
The point is, the Patriots have not been really dangerous in the postseason since they were forced to stop cheating and Nobody Beats the Wiz went bankrupt.
Meanwhile, that’s all the Ravens are is dangerous in the postseason. Since Joe Flacco made the jump in 2010, Baltimore is 7-2 in the playoffs, with only one legit loss, a 31-24 defeat by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2010, blemishing their record. Flacco has averaged a 104.3 passer rating in that playoff run and picked up a Super Bowl ring. He has not lost a playoff game since that last-second debacle against the Patriots in 2011. Flacco has a career road playoff mark of 7-0, the best in the history of the NFL. He’s about to be 8-0. Pick: Ravens 27, Patriots 16
Panthers at Seahawks [-10.5]
With our road upset already picked, we can go ahead and dispense with any nonsense about the Panthers possibly winning this game. Cam Newton is playing on a bad ankle and a broken back, with his best wideout a rookie (but a really good one in Kelvin Benjamin) and facing off against the best secondary in the NFL. It’s going to get ugly. I’m talking Cam Newton in a postgame press conference wearing Capri pants ugly.
The only question for this game is if the Panthers can keep it within two touchdowns (they won’t) and if Newton will go with the purple blazer again (I’m guessing no.). Pick: Seahawks 38, Panthers 13
SUNDAY
Cowboys at Packers [-5.5]
In case you haven’t heard, here’s what we’re dealing with in this match up. The Packers went 8-0 at home this season. The Cowboys went 8-0 on the road. Aaron Rodgers is probably going to win NFL MVP and has enjoyed another incredible season. His problem recently, though, has been the postseason. And it’s weird to say that about a guy with a Super Bowl ring, but I said it. Now I’m going to back it up.
Since Rodgers took over for Green Bay they’ve made the playoffs six times counting this year. Three times they were one-and-done, once at home to the Giants who eventually went on to win the Super Bowl and once on the road in a 51-45 loss to the Arizona Cardinals that may have been the best football game ever played. Last year’s loss at home to the Colin Kaepernick-led San Francisco 49ers was inexcusable.
Rodgers has had only one great playoff run, the one in 2010 that ended with a Super Bowl Championship but that’s a full Olympics ago. Willow Smith was on the radio back then and Miley Cyrus was still wearing clothes. Lost was still on, for God’s sake. It’s been a long damn time since Rodgers was good in the playoffs is what I’m saying. He’s 1-3 in the postseason since 2010 to be exact.
Consider then, Antonio Ramiro Romo, your quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys who’s just come off the best season of his life and an epic, come-from-behind playoff win that only has a little bit of referee stink on it. Romo is a guy that’s dealt with choking issues in the past, and that 8-0 record may be a part of that. When he’s not home, there’s no pressure. When there’s no pressure, he can play up to his potential. Quarterbacks that don’t feel playoff pressure win championships. Look at Flacco and Eli Manning.
Rodgers comes into this game with a partially torn calf after Ndamukong Suh river-danced on it two weeks ago He’s missed a couple of practices and that should scare everybody with a road-perfect Cowboys team coming into town. But it’s going to be too cold in Green Bay Sunday, like wagon train that gets trapped in the mountains and everybody has to eat each other cold. Better luck next year, Cowboys, but it was good to have you back. Pick: Packers 23, Cowboys 20
Colts at Broncos [-7]
If you only looked at the month of December and picked the five worst quarterbacks in the NFL, on the list with your Ryan Lindleys, your Jay Cutlers and your Johnny Manziels a name would stick out. A name you wouldn’t have expected to see. That name is Peyton Williams Manning.
To say Manning played like ass over the last month of 2014 is an insult to asses everywhere. Certainly the sheer number of pop songs celebrating asses recorded in the last year alone should tell you that any comparison to the gluteus maximus, the intergluteal cleft and the overall buttocks itself to the way Peyton Manning has played professional football is completely unfounded. No, Peyton Manning has been worse than ass.
Meanwhile, Andrew Luck is coming off another playoff win. A playoff win in back-to-back seasons. If Manning beats the Colts Sunday it will be only the second time in his entire career he’s managed to pull that off. Manning has been so bad in the playoffs that he would have to win this game, the AFC Championship and the Super Bowl just to get a .500 postseason record. In addition to all his passing NFL records, Manning holds the inglorious mark of having lost more playoff games, 12, than any other quarterback in history. Manning has eight one-and-done playoff seasons, also an NFL record.
No team needed the bye more than the Broncos. If Manning doesn’t shake off whatever has been wrong with him since Thanksgiving, he’s about to have some bye months. I would say this is the game where Manning passes the torch to Andrew Luck, but with the way Peyton has been playing, he’d toss it to a Colts defender instead who’d run it in for a touchdown. Colts 24. Broncos 20
Straight up:
Last week: 3-1
Overall: 159-100-1
Against the Spread:
Last week: 2-2
Overall 121-137
