Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts travel to battle Rob Gronkowski and the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship at Gillette Stadium. The NFL’s third-leading passer, Luck (4,761 yards, 40 TDs) is a player to keep an eye on in this contest. It will begin Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET and can be seen on CBS.
In last week’s AFC Divisional Round, New England notched a win over Baltimore 35-31. Gronkowski had an outstanding performance in the win, catching seven receptions for 108 yards and one TD. Tom Brady also had a big day, contributing 367 yards and three TDs through the air. Indianapolis beat Denver 24-13. D’Qwell Jackson led the way for the Indianapolis defense, recording 11 tackles. Daniel Herron added 63 yards and a TD on 23 attempts.
New England is a considerable seven-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at 53 points. The Patriots enter the game with records of 12-4 Straight Up (SU) and 9-7 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. There will be plenty of opportunities for the Patriots to steal the ball from Indianapolis. The Colts currently rank 29th in turnovers given up with 1.9 per game. In the second quarter, New England is tough as nails, putting up a league-leading 11.4 points during the second frame.
Across the field, the Colts have a record of 10-5-1 ATS and 11-5 SU. Odds are Indianapolis will continue to rely on its passing attack, where its 305.9 passing yards per game ranks first in the league. The Colts have a habit of starting the second half with the proper adjustments in place. They average 7.6 points during the third quarter, ranking fourth in the NFL. Don’t be surprised to hear lots of calls against the Patriots when they take the field. New England is among the most penalized teams in the league, receiving an average of 7.5 penalties per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – NE, ATS Winner – IND, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England’s last 7 games.
New England is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games.
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
New England is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 11 of New England’s last 14 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 5 games when playing Indianapolis.
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis.
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis.
New England is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Indianapolis.
Both teams are 10-1 SU when leading at the half this season.
This season, Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and 5-3 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
The New England passing attack is ranked ninth in the league, while the Indianapolis pass defense is only ranked 12th. The Colts’ passing game is ranked first, compared to the 17th-ranked pass defense of the Patriots.
Indianapolis has allowed 23.1 points per contest this year, which is ranked only 23rd in the league. New England has put up 29.2 points per game this year and is ranked fifth overall.
