The UFC on FOX 15 event scheduled for April 18 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey features a middleweight main event pitting top contenders Luke Rockhold and Lyoto Machida. Right now at offshore bookmaker 5Dimes, the line sees Rockhold favored at (-150), with the comeback on Machida paying (+125). The bout is scheduled for five rounds and has an over/under of 3.5 rounds, with the over paying (-140) and the under at (+110).
Machida is coming off a one minute stoppage over CB Dolloway that got him back on the winning track, but prior to that he lost a unanimous decision to Chris Weidman in a failed bid to win the middleweight championship. Machida, who can be described as a precise technician, had a hard time handling the speed and strength on the champion Weidman.
Rockhold could potentially be a better, more explosive athlete than even Weidman, so the UFC is asking Lyoto to take on a hard fight to justify his staying near the top of the rankings. A win here would put him at 4-1 since dropping down to the middleweight class.
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Since losing his UFC debut to Vitor Belfort, Luke Rockhold has been a ton of bricks, going 3-0, winning all the fights by stoppage in under six minutes each. He dispatched Tim Boetsch and Costa Phillippou in the opening round of their fight, and took basically the first minute of round two to submit Michael Bisping. Machida is Rockhold’s most skilled opponent since the Belfort loss, so he represents a step up in competition. Rockhold has not earned a title shot yet in the UFC, and he has Ronaldo Souza, a man he defeated back in StrikeForce, queued up ahed of him in the UFC’s pecking order, so he needs a win here to not lose momentum. Only a spectacular victory could earn Rockhold the “McGregor treatment” where he leapfrogs contenders, so he is likely looking at another hard fight after this one.
A loss here would put Machida at (1-2) in his last three fights and would likely be seen as a signal that his time in the top five of the divisional rankings may be at an end. Here is a Lyoto Machida video from the UFC where he talks about his “Dragon Philosophy”:
