The TNT Thursday double-header features a couple of interesting games this week, although on paper, we appear to be in for two mismatches. The Denver Nuggets visit the Memphis Grizzlies and the second game features the Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers.
While Bulls-Lakers always excites hardcore NBA bettors, with Kobe Bryant on the shelf with a shoulder injury, we shouldn’t expect a very competitive game. That just begs the question if either of these big dogs can cover.
Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies
There is very little reason to pick the Nuggets here when talking about the outright win. Denver has lost seven games in a row and four of those losses came at home. Their last three losses have come by a combined seven points but they are still not getting the defensive stops they need.
Denver allows an average of 104.5 points per game, which is worse than seven of the eight teams currently in playoff positions in the Western Conference (only Phoenix allows more at 105.3) and Denver is one of five teams in the Western Conference with a negative point differential (minus-2.7 points per game). The Nuggets are an okay team at home but they’re 6-15 on the road when they’re not able to play in the elevated environment and the Rocky Mountain air.
This game will be in Memphis against a Grizzlies team that just defeated the Dallas Mavericks in Dallas. Memphis is second in the Western Conference and has won eight of its last 10 games, not to mention four in a row. The Grizzlies are a very solid 19-5 at home and, unlike Denver, they defend. Memphis allows just 97.1 points per game, which is third best in the league behind Atlanta and Miami.
On the season, the Nuggets are just 7-18 against teams with a winning record while Memphis is 15-4 versus sub-.500 teams. There’s no way in which the Nuggets look better than the Grizzlies by comparison and considering the Nuggets were just spanked by 14 points at the Los Angeles Clippers, expect a similar result in this spot. Pick: Grizzlies -11
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Chicago Bulls @ Los Angeles Lakers
This is a game in which the outcome also seems very likely, with one detail offering the outside chance of an upset or something unexpected.
For the most part, you’re going to be hard-pressed to pick the Lakers in this one. The Bulls make much more sense for several reasons. Start with the really obvious: the Lakers have lost nine games in a row and are 1-9 in their last 10 games. With Kobe Bryant out for the season, the Lakers have that much more incentive to tank. That clears the deck for the development of their young players but even though they’ll get to work, it’s going to come at a short-term cost of losing lots of games. The Lakers average under 100 points per game, which puts them at a great disadvantage on a nightly basis, and they are 6-17 at home, which is horrendous.
Meanwhile, the Bulls are road demons with an away record of 17-6. They’re 7-3 in their last 10 road games and are coming off a very impressive win in Golden State. The Bulls beat the Warriors in Oakland on Tuesday, ending their 19-game home winning streak. Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah both scored 18 points and collected at least 15 rebounds. The Lakers can’t match up with that size and power in the post.
The only reason the Lakers might win is that Derrick Rose played 43 minutes against Golden State and could be wiped out. That’s about all you have to go on here if you’re backing the Lakers as all other signs point to a big Bulls win and cover. The Lakers have covered the spread just once in their last nine games, so there’s no reason to have much faith in this spot. Pick: Bulls
