The Washington Wizards are on pace to win 55 games for the first time in nearly four decades. That won’t happen if they don’t find a way to get back on track in a hurry. Despite a hot start, they have been a .500 team over the past couple of weeks with a 5-5 record over their last 10 games.
Part of the problem has been a difficult schedule that pitted them against some of the better teams in the Western Conference but there is more to it than that. Washington has been very good against teams in the bottom third of the NBA standings and has really struggled against teams.
Originally deemed a team that could contend with Cleveland, Chicago, Toronto and Atlanta for an East title, the Wizards have fallen off recently for a number of reasons.
Feasting On The West’s Weak, Struggling Against The Strong
The NBA is unlike any other major North American sports league when it comes to the disparity in talent from the top to the bottom of the standings and the Wizards numbers this season illustrate that point perfectly.
Washington is 6-0 against teams that rank in the bottom-five of the Western Conference standings compared to 5-8 against top 10 teams –including a pair of wins over the ninth-place New Orleans Pelicans. Three of their last five losses came against the Portland Trail Blazers, Phoenix Suns, and Oklahoma City Thunder which are currently seeded fourth, eighth, and tenth in the West. Two of those three losses came on the road and the loss to Oklahoma City came in overtime at home, but there is no doubt that there is a trend in that the Wizards have struggled against the better teams in the West.
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Same Trends Versus The Eastern Conference
The outlook for Washington is similar in the Eastern Conference where they lost to the Toronto Raptors in overtime on Saturday. The Wizards are 20-9 against opponents from their own conference this season but they are 0-4 against the two teams above them in the standings in Toronto and the Atlanta Hawks. Considering the seventh and eighth seeds in the East are each at least five games below .500, it’s clear that Washington is fortunate to be playing on this side of the standings where they will have an excellent shot at maintaining a top-four position and home court advantage for at least the first round of the playoffs. The Wizards are just 13-10 on the road this season so home advantage will be crucial.
Wizards Offense Has Been Inconsistent
Washington’s defense ranks in the top 10 this season and while part of that has to do with playing in the weaker conference, they have actually done a really good job buying in with their effort at that end of the floor.
The biggest issue has been at the other end of the floor where the Wizards rank just 17th in points per game despite owning the fourth-highest assists per game average in the NBA. John Wall is the only guard in the NBA that is averaging a double-double while Marcin Gortat and Nene have been an excellent big man tandem, but Washington’s shooting numbers must improve. Bradley Beal and Paul Pierce have been good but not great, while the bench doesn’t have much to offer in terms of the consistency of Rasual Butler, Kris Humphries, and Otto Porter Jr.. The Wizards actually really do miss Trevor Ariza and scoring is the one area they might look to address before the NBA trade deadline.
The bottom line for Washington is that they are a good team playing in a relatively weak conference that gives them the illusion of being better than they are. The Wizards have won the games they have been expected to win but have struggled against some of the top competition that they have faced.
Scoring has also been an issue all year and is the one area the team would really benefit from addressing before the NBA trade deadline if they can. Washington has plenty of talented pieces led by Wall but they should not be considered an elite team just yet. Their .500 record over their last 10 games is the perfect illustration of that.
