We all know the legendary names, games and iconic moments that this rivalry has produced. It needs no dramatic moniker, as just uttering the words, “Duke-North Carolina” works just fine. The series resumes tonight as Roy Williams and his Tar Heels make the quick drive to Cameron Indoor Stadium, where Mike Krzyzewski and the Blue Devils will be waiting.
While this edition doesn’t feature the high level stakes of years passed, like a spot atop the ACC for example, it certainly carries the weight of a looming March Madness on its shoulders. A win for UNC would put them in third place, ahead of Duke, in conference. A win for Duke further separates them from the ACC’s second tier in the standings, and puts them just one-half game back of Notre Dame for second place, peering up at Virginia.
With that in mind, here is the breakdown for tonight’s match up:
Odds: No. 12 North Carolina at No. 4 Duke (-8.5)
Keys For Duke: The Blue Devils’ guards must defer to Jahlil Okafor in the post early and often. North Carolina will likely be throwing Kennedy Meeks, and even a little Brice Johnson, underneath to deal with the big fella. What’s the ideal way to deal with that? Make Meeks compete on both ends, causing him to tire out quickly and possibly pick up a few cheap fouls to go along with the necessary ones he’ll likely have to give to guard Big Jahlil. Not only does this help his cause underneath, but eventually, it causes UNC defenders to back off the perimeter and dig down into the post to provide some external pressure. Cue the kick outs, ball swings and open corner threes for Duke’s guards. Another name that is going to be vital for Duke, in the post, is Amile Jefferson. With so much attention likely to be put on Okafor, Jefferson will have opportunities to clean up second chance points and benefit from post-to-post action all night.
On the perimeter, it’s important that Tyus Jones and Quin Cook pick their spots offensively and allow the game to come to them. Defensively, they’ll have their hands full when guarding Marcus Paige, one of the country’s premier point guards. They mustn’t give him any space to shoot, rather forcing him into a deferring role. Whoever draws the assignment of J.P Tokoto will have to put forth a concerted effort to limit his effect on the offensive glass, a spot where his presence is most often felt.
Keys for North Carolina: Feed Meeks the rock, and let him do what he does draw fouls on opposing big man. Meeks gets to the line over four times per game, and he’s improved his effectiveness from last year by more than 10 percent. Much like Duke’s need to draw interior fouls, UNC’s guards will benefit. Duke’s perimeter defense is shaky, at best, when they’re in man-to-man. If they come out that way, and stay that way, Paige should be able to take advantage of his quickness advantage over Cook and Jones, causing them to reach and block, eventually sending him and others to the free throw line. They’ll need to knock shots down once they’re at the line, which could be dicey as they shoot just 69 percent from the charity stripe as a team, but Paige and Nate Britt are plenty effective once there.
As mentioned previously with Tokoto, North Carolina must continue their ownership of the rebounding battle. The Tar Heels are the best rebounding team in the conference, and second best overall in the country, while being particularly prolific with over 15 offensive boards per game. At key points when Okafor goes to the bench, it will be particularly important for UNC to keep up that trend. Finally, UNC leads the country in assists per game at 17.6, thanks in large part to Paige (4.2 assists per game), Tokoto (4.0 assists per game) and Justin Jackson (2.6 assists per game). Ball movement could be key in case they face a zone defense from Duke.
Pick: Each team is riding a different wave coming into tonight, with the Blue Devils winners of five straight and the Tar Heels having lost three of their last four games. While Paige told reporters this week that his team didn’t feel any overall concern for his team’s future, only that they haven’t played well as of late, he did cite tonight’s game as an opportunity to right some of the wrongs that they’ve exhibited recently. Outside of their struggles at Florida State, this five game streak has arguably been the best basketball that Duke has played all year, and I’m expecting them to extend their winning ways to six games in a row, thanks in large part to the prolific nature of Jahlil Okafor and the home crowd of the Cameron Crazies.
