NBA Odds: Hawks (-5)
In a matchup between the two teams with the best records in the Eastern Conference, the Toronto Raptors (36-17) travel to play Atlanta Hawks (43-11) at Philips Arena. The game gets underway at 7:30 pm ET on Friday, Feb. 20 and will air on SN One and SPSO.
The Hawks lost a winnable game to the Celtics 89-88 the last time they played. Al Horford recorded 22 points and 12 rebounds, earning his 12th double-double of the year. The Raptors, meanwhile, are coming off a 95-93 win over the Wizards in their last outing. Lou Williams shot 8-for-16 and led in scoring with 27 points.
The frequency with which the Raptors shoot free throws could play a key factor in this game. They rank fourth in the league in free throw attempt rate (30.4), but Atlanta is among the best in the NBA at keeping opponents off the line (ranking fourth by allowing a free throw attempt rate of 24.4).
The Raptors have won two out of three against the Hawks this season, but dropped their most recent game, a 110-89 blowout. Horford was a standout player in the game, producing 22 points, five rebounds, five assists, and one block.
Atlanta is a five-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable. The Hawks enter the game with records of 43-11 Straight Up (SU) and 36-18 Against The Spread (ATS). They have a record of 28-7 SU and 22-13 ATS versus the Eastern Conference. Atlanta has consistently been near the top of the league in terms of FG%, currently ranking third in the league with a field goal percentage of .471. Spreading the ball around is a huge part of Atlanta’s offense. They are second in the league in assists with an average of 25.7 per game.
On the other side, Toronto has a SU record of 36-17 and an ATS record of 26-26-1. In Eastern Conference games, Toronto has gone 24-10 SU and 17-17 ATS. Toronto is one of the top foul-shooting teams in the league, hitting .783 of their shots from the line.
Atlanta beat Toronto in their most recent meeting this season, evening up the two teams’ head-to-head record over the last 10 games. However, the Raptors lead the matchup ATS with a record of 6-4. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Toronto held the edge in all three of these categories three times in the last 10 meetings. Atlanta never did so in those games.
Predictions: SU Winner – ATL, ATS Winner – ATL
Notes
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta’s last 10 games.
Atlanta is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 6 games at home.
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Atlanta is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games when playing Toronto.
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 9 games when playing Toronto.
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto.
Atlanta is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Toronto.
Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto.
Toronto averages 105.6 points per game (ranked fifth). However, Atlanta has allowed an average of just 96.8 points per game (ranked fourth).
Atlanta allows 95.3 points at home this season. Topping the league in road scoring, Toronto puts up 108.7 points in away games.
The Atlanta Hawks have a winning record (30-3) when their opponents score fewer than 100 points this season. The Toronto Raptors are 7-9 when they don’t hit triple digits.
The Hawks have a 13-8 record when they allow at least 100 points. The Raptors have also performed well when they reach the century mark with a record of 29-8 in such games.
The Raptors have a defensive rating of 103.9 (ranked 17th). The Hawks rank sixth for their offensive rating of 107.2.
With 96.5 possessions and 1.072 points per possession, the Atlanta Hawks perform worse on both metrics than the Toronto Raptors. Toronto averages 96.9 possessions and 1.090 points per possession.
The Toronto Raptors have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking seventh in the league with an EFF% of 51.0%. The Atlanta Hawks have a solid 11-7 record in games where opponents have a similar or higher EFF%.
On average, the Atlanta Hawks make 25.7 assists per game and the Toronto Raptors make 21.0. Atlanta is ranked second, while Toronto is ranked 20th.
Atlanta makes an average of 4.6 blocks per game (ranked 16th), while Toronto makes 4.5 blocks per game (ranked 18th).
The Atlanta Hawks rank 30th in offensive rebounding, while the Toronto Raptors rank 27th in defensive rebounding.
Making 8.8 steals per game, Atlanta is ranked sixth in the NBA. Toronto has a winning 11-5 record when it gives up at least 8 steals.
