NBA Odds: Mavericks (-3)
Southwest Division foes will lock horns when the Dallas Mavericks (36-19) play the Houston Rockets (36-17) at the American Airlines Center. Action begins at 8:30 pm ET on Friday, Feb. 20 and can be seen on ROOT-SW and FSN-SW.
The Mavericks played well in their last game, topping the Jazz 87-82 in their last matchup. J.J. Barea was the game’s leading scorer with 22 points on 8-for-15 shooting. The Rockets, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after the 110-95 loss against the Clippers in their last game. Houston still lost despite the best efforts of Josh Smith, who recorded his 10th double-double of the season with 21 points and 13 rebounds.
Based on historical performance heading into this one, ball security could play a key role in the matchup. Dallas commits the third-fewest miscues in the NBA (turnover percentage of 12.2%), while Houston’s disruptive defense causes the third-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.8%). It could also be a mistake-prone game for the offense of the Rockets, which ranks 29th in ball security (turnover percentage of 16.3%). They’ll be going up against the disruptive defense of the Mavericks, which forces the fourth-most turnovers in the NBA (15.7%).
The Rockets have emerged victorious in both games against the Mavericks this year, including a 99-94 win the last time these two teams met. Monta Ellis was the top overall scorer in the game with 33 points.
Dallas is a three-point favorite against Houston and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is currently unavailable. The Mavericks come into this game 36-19 Straight Up (SU) and 25-27-3 Against The Spread (ATS). They are winless at home ATS (0-3) when playing within the division, and 0-3 SU. The Mavericks have no trouble scoring as they rank third in the league in offense with 106.3 points per game. Dallas is one of the most disciplined teams in the league with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.9. Dallas is the league’s top scoring team off turnovers with an average of 19.5 points per game. Dallas will look to take advantage of the Rockets and their propensity to foul. Houston has committed the 29th-most fouls in the league, averaging 22.7 per game.
Over on the other bench, the Rockets have a record of 30-23 ATS and 36-17 SU. Against fellow division members, Houston has a 5-4 SU and ATS record. Offensively, they average 105.7 points per game on the road, which is fourth in the league. The Rockets rely heavily on three-pointers on offense, leading the league with 625 made (11.8 per game). The Rockets have controlled the offensive glass with an average of 12.1 per game, fourth in the league. The Rockets are a problem for teams on the defensive side, allowing a league-low .316 shooting from three-point range to their opponents. Houston is the fifth-best team in the league at scoring points off turnovers with 18.8 per game.
The Rockets’ win over Dallas in their last clash brought the head-to-head record to an even 5-5 SU over the last 10 meetings. The Rockets lead the matchup ATS with a record of 5-4-1. Houston held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers twice in the last 10 matchups. On the other side of the court, Dallas never accomplished this feat in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, ATS Winner – HOU
Notes
Dallas ranks third in points per game with 106.3, while Houston ranks 18th in points allowed with an average of 99.8 given up.
On average, Dallas scores 107.3 points per home game (ranked second). Houston ranks 24th in points allowed per road game with 103.7.
Dallas has a superb 18-2 record when it gives up under 100 points this season. Houston is 9-10 when it puts up under 100.
Dallas is 18-17 when allowing 100 or more points this season. The Rockets have a fantastic 27-7 record when they hit the century mark.
The Mavericks have the third-best offensive rating in the NBA (108.7). The Rockets are also in the top half of the league based on their defensive rating of 100.3 (ranked sixth).
Dallas averages fewer possessions per game than Houston, with 97.8 compared to 99.5. However, the Mavericks score an average of 1.087 points per possession, more than the 1.037 that the Rockets score.
The Dallas Mavericks have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking fourth in the league with an EFF% of 52.1%. When their opponents record a similar or higher EFF%, the Houston Rockets have a subpar 4-12 record.
Dallas makes an average of 23.0 assists per game (ranked eighth), while Houston makes 21.7 assists per game (ranked 13th).
Dallas makes an average of 4.9 blocks per game (ranked 10th), while Houston makes 4.5 blocks per game (ranked 19th).
The Dallas Mavericks rank 16th in offensive rebounding, while the Houston Rockets rank 23rd in defensive rebounding.
The Houston Rockets rank second in steals, with an average of 9.6 per game. When the Dallas Mavericks allow at least 9 steals, they have a solid 9-5 record.
