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English Premier League Weekend Picks: Man City Enters Newcastle As Heavy Favorite

Man City can't afford to fall any further back this week.

The resounding shock of Chelsea’s stunning FA Cup exit hasn’t passed and already the focus has turned to the outlook for the remainder of their season. The Blues are clearly not invincible but they still lead the Premier League by seven points over Manchester City and can narrow their focus to chasing the three most important trophies still within their reach.

This week should offer them an opportunity to bounce back as Burnley is being served up as a sacrificial lamb. Here’s a preview of that game and the two other best bets of the week:

Chelsea vs. Burnley – Saturday, 10:00 AM ET

EPL Odds: Chelsea -646, Burnley +1594, Draw +592

It was suggested by some – including Paris Saint-Germain manager Laurent Blanc – that elimination from the FA Cup could actually be a blessing in disguise for Chelsea. Blanc went as far as to suggest that Jose Mourinho wanted the Blues out of the FA Cup and while that is clearly not the case, the reality is that they can now turn their attention to trophies in both the Premier League and Champions League.

Chelsea settled for a 1-1 draw with PSG on Tuesday and will welcome a return to Stamford Bridge for a date with a Burnley side that is staring down relegation. The Blues took a 3-1 win the last time these teams met and it wouldn’t be a shock if the result was even more lopsided in their favor as they look to flex their collective muscle after a couple of disappointing results. They’re heavily favored to take the three points here and it would be complete disaster if they didn’t. Pick: Chelsea

Manchester City vs. Newcastle United – Saturday, 12:30 PM ET

EPL Odds: Manchester City -423, Newcastle +1031, Draw +480

City is also home this week and will look to keep pace with Chelsea by defeating Newcastle United at home. Like the Blues, they also have a layup. The Magpies certainly have a better record than Burnley and should provide a tougher test, but it shouldn’t be too much for the home side to handle. A Champions League clash with Barcelona could have served as a distraction but considering what is at stake at this stage in the season, it’s unlikely to happen.

City can’t afford to fall any further in the table and the chances of Newcastle United catching them off guard in this contest are slim to none. Newcastle has just one win in 2015 (against Hull) and when you factor in that the Magpies secured a 2-0 upset win the last time these teams clashed, it’s like the Citizens will be eyeing some revenge. Pick: Manchester City

Southampton vs. Liverpool – Sunday, 11:15 AM ET

EPL Odds: Southampton +145, Liverpool +180, Draw +228

Only four points separates these teams from fourth to seventh in the standings with Southampton holding the edge. That means this game will have major implications as Liverpool looks to close the gap on a Champions League spot. Southampton’s rise to a Champions League position has been nothing short of a fairytale following their rise from League One. They’ve been impressive recently, taking 13 points from six EPL games in 2015 with some credible wins over Arsenal and Manchester United.

While there is no denying they deserve the credit they have received to this point, they will be in tough to fend off an experienced and talented opponent that will be desperate to try and close the gap. Liverpool has shown flashes of being a true contender this calendar year. They are the only undefeated Premier League team in 2015, collecting 14 out of a possible 18 points. While they are capable of going in to St. Mary’s Stadium and pulling out the upset, the more likely scenario has the home side holding them to a draw. Southampton is 7-3-3 at home this season while Liverpool has just six wins in 12 away games. Look for Southampton to negate Brendan Rodgers’ side the opportunity to close the gap in the table in what should still be one of the most entertaining games for this weekend. Pick: Draw

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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