NBA Odds: Thunder (even)
Northwest Division foes will collide when the Oklahoma City Thunder (29-25) challenge the Denver Nuggets (20-34) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Action begins at 7:00 pm ET on Sunday, Feb. 22 and can be seen on NBATV, Altitude and FSN-OK.
The Thunder played well in their last game, topping the Mavericks 104-89 on Thursday. Russell Westbrook played a pivotal role, recording his 13th double-double of the season with 34 points and 10 assists. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after the 89-81 loss against the Bucks on Friday. Denver still lost despite the best efforts of Jusuf Nurkic, who recorded his fourth double-double of the season with 11 points and 15 rebounds.
Over the last five games, Westbrook has taken his game to another level for the Thunder, averaging 30.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 8.8 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.6 three-pointers.
The Thunder defense could make it difficult on Denver’s shooters. They rank third in the NBA in forcing misses (opponents’ effective field goal percentage of 47.6%), while the Denver offense is 26th with a mark of 47.5%.
The Thunder lead the season series against the Nuggets two games to one, including a 124-114 win the last time these two teams met. In the victory, Kevin Durant led all scorers with 40 points.
The odds for Oklahoma City and Denver are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is currently unavailable. The Thunder come into this game 29-25 Straight Up (SU) and 25-27-2 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 6-4 SU and 4-5-1 ATS against divisional opponents. The rebounding edge goes to the Thunder in this matchup, who average a league-best 46.8 rebounds per game. As for the Oklahoma City defense, it’s been a struggle for opposing teams to score on the Thunder. The 95.5 points that Oklahoma City’s defense allows per home game makes them the fourth-ranked defense at home. Oklahoma City’s defense can be considered one of the best in the league. The Thunder allow a .428 opponent field-goal percentage, one of the lowest shooting rates in the league. Opponents have consistently had their shots rejected by the Thunder, ranking fifth in the league in blocks per game with 6.0. Oklahoma City will look to take advantage of the Nuggets and their propensity to foul. Denver has committed the most fouls in the league, averaging 23.0 per game.
As for their opponent, the Nuggets have a record of 21-30-3 ATS and 20-34 SU. Against fellow division members, Denver has a 4-6 SU and a 2-7-1 ATS record. One advantage for the Nuggets could be Oklahoma City’s high fouls per game average of 22.4.
The Thunder’s win over Denver in their last game brought the head-to-head record to an even 5-5 SU over the last 10 meetings. On the other hand, the Nuggets hold the advantage ATS with a record of 5-4-1. Oklahoma City and Denver both held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers one time over the last 10 games.
Predictions: SU Winner – OKC, ATS Winner – OKC
Notes
Oklahoma City 4-0-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Oklahoma City is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City’s last 6 games at home.
Oklahoma City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Denver.
Oklahoma City is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver.
Oklahoma City is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Denver.
Denver is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City puts up an average of 100.7 points per game (ranked 13th). Denver ranks 26th in points allowed per game with 103.8.
Denver ranks 21st in points allowed per road game (104.1 PPG), while Oklahoma City ranks ninth in points per home game with 103.4.
In games where they allow fewer than 100 points, the Oklahoma City Thunder are a winning 20-9. In games where they fail to hit triple digits, the Denver Nuggets have an abysmal record of 4-18.
When Oklahoma City gives up at least 100 points, the team has a losing 9-16 record this season. The Nuggets are at 0.500 when they hit the century mark (16-16).
The Nuggets have a defensive rating of 104.4 (ranked 22nd). The Thunder rank 15th for their offensive rating of 102.7.
The Denver Nuggets average 99.5 possessions per game and 1.008 points per possession. The Oklahoma City Thunder earn fewer possessions with 98.1, but they score more points with 1.027.
Oklahoma City has an average effective field goal percentage of 48.7%. Denver is a subpar 3-24 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
Oklahoma City makes an average of 20.3 assists per game (ranked 26th). Denver ranks higher in assists with 21.6 (ranked 15th).
Oklahoma City ranks near the top of the league in blocking at fifth (6.0 blocks per game). Denver is ranked 12th, with 4.8 blocks per game.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are among the best offensive rebounding teams in the league (ranked fifth). The Denver Nuggets are one of the top defensive rebounding teams (ranked 10th).
On average, Oklahoma City makes 7.2 steals per game. Denver is a subpar 8-24 when it allows at least 7 steals.
