The Atlanta Hawks posted a 3-3 record in their final six games before the NBA All-Star weekend and after a 25-point loss to the Toronto Raptors in their first game back from the break, the questions started to come up about whether this team had already peaked. Nobody expected this team to be this good, so maybe they were just deviating back to the norm.
But Atlanta still owns a seven-game lead at the top of the Eastern Conference standings, so as long as they don’t hit a wall over the next two months, they should be able to hang on to the top seed and home advantage throughout the playoffs. There were some troubling signs in each of their last four losses and critics were quick to pile on but every NBA team goes through a rough stretch. Their bigger body of work suggests they are still a championship contender and one portion of their schedule in particular should provide even more insight in to their ceiling.
Stats Suggest They’re Still A Contender
The Hawks climbed to the top of the standings thanks in big part to their shooting efficiency. They rank seventh in the NBA with an average of 102.9 points per game this season and their 25.6 assists per game ranks second in the association. That’s one reason why their shooting numbers were so good. The combination of making that important pass and being able to hit from anywhere on the floor has been the key to their success as coach Mike Budenholzer has implemented that San Antonio Spurs-like system.
While those numbers have dipped in the month of February (they are averaging 22.4 assists per game in February, which is 13th in the NBA), it isn’t reason enough to doubt their abilities. Kyle Korver, Jeff Teague, Al Horford and Paul Millsap have been excellent all season and just because they have stalled a bit of late does not mean they won’t play their best basketball when it matters the most in the playoffs.
Struggles Tied To Defense
The more pressing area of concern for the Hawks is the defensive struggles they have had at times – including in the loss to the Raptors when they allowed Toronto to shoot 44.8 percent from the field. Coach Budenholzer admitted exactly that. Despite the shooting lulls that will happen on offense from time to time, the effort has to be there on the defensive end of the floor and effort was a concern in those losses. They have given up just 96.6 points per game this season (second in the NBA) but that’s climbed to 98.0 in their last six.
The All-Star weekend might have been a distraction but the fact that the Hawks have built such a substantial lead at the top of the standings could have led to the lack of energy too, which is understandable. The Raptors brought their best to the table in the lopsided win over Atlanta but one loss in February won’t matter come April.
March Will Tell The Tale
The month of February has been a tough one for the Hawks but the idea of whether or not this team has peaked already will probably become clearer come March when they play perhaps their most difficult stretch of the season. Atlanta will begin the month with home dates versus the Houston Rockets and Cleveland Cavaliers before a road trip that features games at the Golden State Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns, and then another home game against San Antonio before the month is up.
The Hawks are 19-8 on the road this season and it will be particularly interesting to see how they fare against the Warriors, Thunder and Suns during that extended road trip. It’s too early to say right now whether Atlanta has hit its high watermark but the month of March will provide some excellent insight in to whether or not this team deserves to be considered a legitimate championship contender come April.
