The American League Central Division has been owned by the Detroit Tigers over the past four years but, the Kansas City Royals emerged as American League champions in 2014. The Cleveland Indians and Chicago White Sox are getting plenty of Hot Stove hype to make for what should be one of the most competitive races in the game. Let’s analyze the teams and their win totals, according to the offshore books.
Chicago White Sox: Over 82.5 +103/Under 82.5 -124
The White Sox were quite active in the Hot Stove League led by the arrival of right hander Jeff Samardzija. Overall the Pale Hose made significant gains that include outfielder Melky Cabrera, first baseman Adam LaRoche, right-hander David Robertson, and left-hander Zach Duke. A starting rotation of Samardzija, Chris Sale and Jose Quintana is cause for hope. The optimism is cooled, however, by a lack of depth and a lineup that is not selective enough at the plate. The number four and five starters are a major question, as is catcher and second base. Plus, it’s the White Sox, and that is always a cause for doubts. We won’t make a hype-filled reach. There are too many questions and holes that remain unfilled. UNDER 82.5 wins is the call.
Cleveland Indians: Over 84.5 -115/Under 84.5 0-115
Hopes could not be higher for the Indians to return to the playoffs for just the third time since 2001. After the sugar rush playoff season of 2013 in manager Terry Francona’s first season on the job, the Tribe took a step back last year with an 85-77 record as their mediocre metrics caught up to them. First baseman Brandon Moss was the big pickup of the offseason for Cleveland. Moss hit 25 home runs for the Oakland A’s last year. American League Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber leads a solid pitching staff but a questionable defense, especially in the outfield, remains a worry and potential liability. The Cleveland rotation had the best earned run average in the second half of last season. We always like pitching. OVER 84.5 wins is the call.
Detroit Tigers: Over 84 -125/Under 84 -105
The Tigers lost starting right hand pitcher Max Scherzer via free agency which is indicative of their overall decline. The Tigers backed into the American League Central Division title last year but were swept out by the Baltimore Orioles in the playoffs. A trade for outfielder Yeonis Cespedes from the Boston Red Sox for right hand pitcher Rick Porcello is one of the more intriguing trades of the Hot Stove League. The poor season of Justin Verlander raises concerns about a Tigers team that has made the playoffs for four consecutive seasons. This may be the make or break season of a core that has likely seen its best days pass. The rotation is still solid and there should be solid run production. The bullpen may prove to be the undoing of the Tigers in 2015. While Detroit looks to be in decline, there is enough here for one more run. OVER 84 wins is the call.
Kansas City Royals: Over 79.5 -127/Under 79.5 +106
The Royals are coming off their first playoff appearance since 1985 that ended in a seven game World Series loss to the San Francisco Giants. With an apathetic fan base that has had its passion re-ignited, it was a lackluster offseason that reminded all of the Royals miserable 29 years in the abyss. Still, there is hope for another run. Eric Hosmer first baseman came on strong in the playoffs as a team leader at the plate, in the field, and in the clubhouse and can be expected to have a career year for 2015. The Royals will boast good pitching with an excellent bullpen and perhaps the best defense in the game. As always, the ultimate success of the Royals will come down to its questionable run production. We see Hosmer carrying the Royals into playoff contention. OVER 79.5 wins is the call.
Minnesota Twins: Over 71.5 -124/Under 71.5 +103
It has now been four consecutive seasons of 70 wins or less for the Twins after their status as a perennial playoff contender from 2002 through 2010. Paul Molitor arrives as manager to try and instill a new attitude and clubhouse culture. The decline of Joe Mauer has been depressing for Twins fans as he has not been able to stay in the lineup. If Minnesota is to improve it will be based on a starting pitching rotation led by Phil Hughes, Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson and Alex Meyer. It may be a reach to call the rotation an asset but it should be improved for 2015. The rotation looks to be the key to getting the Twins back on the plus side for wins. That pitching potential will likely be undone, however, by one of the worst defenses in the game. The outfield leather in particular is atrocious. UNDER 71.5 wins is the call.
