NBA Odds: Heat (even)
The Miami Heat host a showdown against the Phoenix Suns at AmericanAirlines Arena. Action begins at 7:30 pm ET on Monday, Mar. 2 and can be seen on NBATV, FSN-AZ and Sun Sports.
The Heat are are hoping for a better outcome after their 93-91 loss to the Hawks on Saturday. Despite the loss, Hassan Whiteside earned his 13th double-double this season with 14 points and 24 rebounds. The Suns, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after the deflating 101-74 loss against the Spurs on Saturday. Marcus Morris had a team-high 19 points.
Whiteside has taken his game to another level over the last five games for the Heat. During that stretch, he has averaged 13.6 points, 14.8 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks.
The physical Heat offense might be getting to the charity stripe a lot in this one. They rank second in the league at getting to the line (free throw attempt rate of 31.0), while Phoenix is among the NBA’s most foul-prone teams (giving up a 27th-ranked free throw attempt rate of 30.9). It will also be a tale of two tempos, as the fast-paced Suns are ranked second in possessions per game, with the methodical Heat at 30th.
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Heat winning the first matchup 103-97. In the victory, Chris Bosh led all scorers with 34 points.
The odds for Miami and Phoenix are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable as of now. The Heat have gone 25-33 Straight Up (SU) and 25-30-3 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 7-16 SU and 8-14-1 ATS against the Western Conference. Miami will look to take advantage of the Suns and their propensity to foul. Phoenix ranks 28th in the league in fouls, averaging 22.2 per game.
As for their opponent, the Suns have a record of 30-27-3 ATS and 31-29 SU. Against the Eastern Conference, Phoenix is 15-8 SU and ATS. The Suns convert their free throws at a high percentage, ranking fourth in the league at .776. Phoenix is the fourth-best team in the league at scoring points off turnovers with 18.4 per game.
With the Heat’s last win against Phoenix, their SU record is now 9-1 over the Suns in the last 10 games. Furthermore, the Heat hold the advantage ATS with a record of 8-2. Miami held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers two times, while Phoenix was never able to do so in their most recent 10 games.
Predictions: SU Winner – PHX, ATS Winner – PHX
Notes
Miami has allowed an average of 96.7 points per game this season. Phoenix averages 105.8 points per game, ranking the team third in scoring.
On average, Miami gives up 97.8 points per home game. Phoenix averages 105.0 points per away game, ranking the team fifth in scoring.
When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Heat are 23-11 on the season. When the Suns score fewer than 100, they are an underachieving 4-14.
When allowing 100 or more points in a game, the Heat are just 2-22 this season. Phoenix is a solid 27-15 when it hits the century mark.
The Suns have a defensive rating of 104.1 (ranked 21st). The Heat rank 19th for their offensive rating of 101.3.
Phoenix beats Miami in both possessions per game and points per possession. The Suns average 100.9 possessions and 1.048 points per possession, while the Heat average 92.5 possessions with 1.013 points per possession.
The Phoenix Suns have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking fifth in the league with an EFF% of 51.3%. When their opponents record a similar or higher EFF%, the Miami Heat have a subpar 5-20 record.
On average, the Phoenix Suns make 20.7 assists per game and the Miami Heat make 20.2. Phoenix is ranked 20th, while Miami is ranked 28th.
The Miami Heat average 4.3 blocks per game for a rank of 24th. The Phoenix Suns rank higher (ninth), earning 5.0 blocks each contest.
Miami is ranked 29th when it comes to offensive rebounding. Phoenix ranks 17th in defensive rebounds.
The Phoenix Suns earn an average of 8.7 steals per game and are ranked sixth. The Miami Heat have a 15-16 record when they allow at least 8 steals.
