NBA Odds: Timberwolves (even)
The Denver Nuggets (20-39) look to end their six-game losing streak when they match up with the Minnesota Timberwolves (13-46) at the Target Center. The game gets underway at 8:00 pm ET on Wednesday, Mar. 4 and will air on Altitude2 and FSN-N.
The Timberwolves lost to the Clippers 110-105 on Monday. Ricky Rubio had a great game, recording his first triple-double with 18 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists. The Nuggets, meanwhile, are coming off a 99-92 loss at the hands of the Pelicans on Sunday. Will Barton had a solid game, accumulating his first double-double of the season with 16 points and 10 rebounds.
Rubio has really been playing well as of late for the Timberwolves, averaging 13.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 9.2 assists, 2.8 steals, and 0.6 three-pointers over the last five games.
The aggressive Timberwolves offense seems focused on getting to the foul line. They rank fourth in the NBA at getting to the stripe (free throw attempt rate of 30.5), while Denver is among the league’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 29th-ranked free throw attempt rate of 31.6).
The Nuggets have won two out of three against the Timberwolves this season, but dropped their most recent game, 113-105. Andrew Wiggins was the game’s leading scorer with 31 points.
Oddsmakers have deemed this game an even matchup and the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable at the moment. The Timberwolves are looking to improve on their records of 13-46 Straight Up (SU) and 26-31-2 Against The Spread (ATS). They have a record of 2-7 SU and 5-3-1 ATS when playing their division. Minnesota should have an edge at the free throw line. They average 19 made free throws per game, which is fourth-best in the NBA. Expect Minnesota to have lots of opportunities at the line against the Nuggets, who lead the league with an average of 22.8 fouls per game.
On the other side, the Nuggets head into the game with records of 21-35-3 ATS and 20-39 SU. Most recently, Denver is a meager 2-8 ATS over the last 10 games. The Nuggets are a force on the offensive glass, grabbing an average of 12.3 offensive rebounds per game.
Minnesota won the last meeting this season between these two teams, evening up the two teams’ head-to-head record over the last 10 games. The Nuggets hold the advantage ATS with a record of 6-4. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Denver held the edge in all three of these categories twice in the last 10 meetings. Minnesota never did so in those games.
Predictions: SU Winner – DEN, ATS Winner – DEN
Notes
Minnesota ranks 22nd in points per game with 97.8, while Denver ranks 26th in points allowed with an average of 104.2 given up.
On average, Minnesota puts up 96.8 points per home game (ranked 22nd). Denver ranks 26th in points allowed per road game with 104.7.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are an even 7-7 when they keep their opponents to fewer than 100 points. The Denver Nuggets have an underachieving record of 4-23 this season when they don’t reach the century mark.
When Minnesota allows at least 100 points, the team has an abysmal 6-39 record this season. The Nuggets are at 0.500 when they hit the century mark (16-16).
Minnesota’s offense and Denver’s defense both rank 25th this season. Minnesota has an offensive rating of 99.7 and Denver has a defensive rating of 104.8.
Denver beats Minnesota in both possessions per game and points per possession. The Nuggets average 99.4 possessions and 1.000 points per possession, while the Timberwolves average 98.1 possessions with .997 points per possession.
Minnesota has an average effective field goal percentage of 46.4%. Denver is an underachieving 8-34 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
Minnesota has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.54 this season (ranked 20th). Denver ranks higher with an A/TO of 1.56 (ranked 19th).
The Timberwolves rank 24th in rebounds per game with 41.9, while the Nuggets rank eighth with 44.7 per game.
The Denver Nuggets are the third-ranked team in offensive rebounds, while the Minnesota Timberwolves are the 28th-ranked team in defensive rebounds.
Minnesota is one of the top teams in forced turnovers, with opponents averaging a TOV% of 15.3% (ranked eighth). Denver has a losing record of 6-11 SU this season when its TOV% reaches 15.3% or greater.
