The No.3-seeded Oklahoma Sooners (21-9) get together with the No.11-seeded Dayton Flyers (23-8) in the third round of the NCAA tournament at Nationwide Arena. The game gets underway at 6:10 pm ET on Sunday, Mar. 22 and will air on TNT.
The Sooners were victorious over Albany 69-60 in the second round. TaShawn Thomas played well in the loss for Oklahoma, recording 13 points and five rebounds to earn his third double-double of the season. The Flyers, meanwhile, are coming off a 66-53 win over Providence in the second round. Jordan Sibert shot 5-for-10 and led in scoring with 12 points.
Over the last five games, Sibert has been on a tear for the Flyers. During that stretch, he has averaged 18.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 2.4 steals, and 2.4 three-pointers.
The frequency with which the Flyers shoot free throws could play a key factor in this game. They rank second in the nation in FTA rate (49.2), but Oklahoma is among the best in the nation at keeping opponents off the line (ranking 30th by allowing a FTA rate of 29.2).
Oklahoma, a five-point favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Dayton. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at 128 points. The Sooners enter the game with records of 23-10 Straight Up (SU) and 15-16 Against The Spread (ATS). They have been worse ATS (3-7) than their SU record (7-3) over their last 10 games would indicate. The Sooners have a distinct advantage on the boards in this matchup. They are the 30th-ranked rebounding team in Division I, averaging 37.8 per game, while the Flyers rank 287th in the nation with 31.9 per game. Turning to the defensive end, the Sooners have stifled opponents’ efforts from beyond the arc, allowing a three-point field goal percentage of only .313. The Sooners are the 20th-best team in the country at blocking shots, averaging 5.2 blocks per game.
Across the court, Dayton has a SU record of 27-8 and an ATS record of 17-16. Teams seem to consistently miss three-point shots against the Flyers, who are the 24th-best team in the country in terms of three-point field goal percentage allowed at .306.
This is the first meeting of the season for Oklahoma and Dayton. The last time they played Oklahoma came out on top, evening up the two teams’ head-to-head record (0-0).
Predictions: SU Winner – OU, ATS Winner – OU, O/U – Over
Notes
The Oklahoma Sooners have a defensive rating of 161.2 (ranked 52nd), while the Dayton Flyers have an offensive rating of 105.6 (ranked 109th).
Dayton has an average field goal percentage of 46.2%. Oklahoma is an underachieving 2-4 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Oklahoma Sooners rank higher based on their field goal percentage (140th) than their effective field goal percentage (145th). The Dayton Flyers rank higher based on their effective field goal percentage (49th) than their field goal percentage (59th).
Dayton ranks 91st in assists, recording 13.8 per game. Oklahoma performs worse at 171st with 12.7 assists per game.
Oklahoma, the 20th-ranked team in blocked shots, records an average of 5.2 per game. Dayton ranks lower at 269th with 2.6.
Oklahoma ranks 157th in offensive rebounds, while Dayton ranks 91st in defensive rebounds.
Oklahoma records 7.1 steals per game. Dayton is 4-5 when giving up at least 7 steals.
