The No.4-seeded Louisville Cardinals face off against the No.5-seeded Northern Iowa Panthers in the third round of the NCAA tournament at Key Arena. Action begins at 9:40 pm ET on Sunday, Mar. 22.
The Cardinals come into this game hoping to repeat their last performance, barely hanging on to beat UC Irvine 57-55 in the second round. Montrezl Harrell was a key piece, recording his 12th double-double of the season with 20 points and five rebounds. The Panthers, meanwhile, are coming off a 71-54 win against Wyoming in the second round. Nate Buss led the game in scoring by accounting for 23 points on 8-for-11 shooting.
Baskets could be hard to come by as Louisville ranks third in the nation, allowing just 130.5 points per 100 possessions, while Northern Iowa is 23rd (152.5). Also, the sharp-shooting offense of the Panthers ranks eighth in eFG% at 56.5%, while the Cardinals are ninth-best in the nation at forcing opponents’ misses (43.3%).
Northern Iowa is a slim one-point favorite over Louisville. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently 116 points. While the Cardinals have a good Straight Up (SU) record (25-8), they’ve been poor Against The Spread (ATS) with a 12-19-1 record. The rebounding edge goes to the Cardinals in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 38.2 boards per game.
As for their opponent, the Panthers have a record of 20-9-3 ATS and 31-3 SU. Northern Iowa performed well ATS during its last 10 games, earning a 7-2-1 record. The Panthers are a problem for teams on the defensive side, allowing only .390 shooting from the field to their opponents.
These two meet for what will be their first head-to-head battle of the season. Louisville won the last game in the matchup, bumping its SU record to 1-0 over the Panthers. The Panthers lead the matchup ATS with a record of 1-0.
Predictions: SU Winner – Lville, ATS Winner – Lville, O/U – Over
Notes
The Northern Iowa Panthers have a defensive rating of 152.5 (ranked 23rd), while the Louisville Cardinals have an offensive rating of 104.7 (ranked 130th).
Louisville averages 66.4 possessions per game, scoring 1.047 points on each possession. While Northern Iowa averages fewer possessions per game with 58.6, they score more points per possession with 1.112.
Northern Iowa has the eighth-ranked average effective field goal percentage in the nation at 56.5%. Louisville is an even 1-1 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
The Louisville Cardinals average 5.5 blocks per game, the 11th-ranked team in the country. The Northern Iowa Panthers rank a lowly 279th in blocking with just 2.5 per game.
Louisville ranks 26th in offensive rebounding. Northern Iowa ranks 185th in defensive rebounding.
The Louisville Cardinals rank 14th in steals this season, with an average of 8.4 per game. When the Northern Iowa Panthers allow at least 8 steals, they have a superb 5-1 record.
