The No.3-seeded Oklahoma Sooners (21-9) play the No.7-seeded Michigan State Spartans (22-10) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament at Carrier Dome. The game gets underway at 10:07 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 27.
The Sooners beat Dayton 72-66 in the third round. TaShawn Thomas recorded 13 points and four steals, earning his third double-double of the year. The Spartans, meanwhile, are coming off a 60-54 win over Virginia in the third round. Denzel Valentine led the game in scoring with 23 points on 9-for-14 shooting.
Valentine has been on fire over the last five games for the Spartans, averaging 16.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.2 steals, and 3.4 three-pointers.
From an eFG% perspective, this will be a battle of strength versus strength when the Spartans have the ball. Their elite offense ranks 34th in the nation in that metric at 53.8%, while Oklahoma is 12th-best in the nation in eFG% defense (43.7%).
Oklahoma is a small underdog, with Michigan State favored by two. The Over/Under (O/U) is set at 133 points. The Sooners are attempting to build on their records of 24-10 Straight Up (SU) and 16-16 Against The Spread (ATS). They have been worse ATS (3-7) than their SU record (7-3) over their last 10 games would indicate.
On the other side, the Spartans head into the game with records of 20-16 ATS and 25-11 SU. The Spartans are an excellent long-range shooting team with 243 three-point shots made (7.6 per game), ranking 38th in Division I. When it comes to making good decisions with the ball, not many are better than the Spartans. They have one of the top assist-to-turnover ratios in the country at 1.45. Michigan State’s defense is one of the top in the nation, with opponents shooting only .397 from the field. The Spartans have established a reputation of cleaning up the defensive glass with 26.2 defensive rebounds per game, making them one of the top teams in the nation.
This game marks the first time these teams will play this season. The last time Oklahoma and Michigan State played, Michigan State won, taking the head-to-head record to an even 2-2 SU. The teams also have an even 2-2 record ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – MSU, ATS Winner – MSU, O/U – Over
Notes
Oklahoma averages 69.0 possessions per game, scoring 1.050 points on each possession. While Michigan State averages fewer possessions per game with 64.9, they score more points per possession with 1.107.
The Michigan State Spartans average an effective field goal percentage of 53.8% this season. The Oklahoma Sooners have a losing record of 2-4 when opponents have an eFG% of 53.8% or greater.
Ranked fourth in the nation, Michigan State has an average of 17.0 assists per game. Oklahoma ranks lower at 171st with 12.7.
Oklahoma, the 20th-ranked team in blocked shots, registers an average of 5.2 per game. Michigan State ranks 56th with 4.5.
Oklahoma ranks 157th in offensive rebounds, while Michigan State ranks 22nd in defensive rebounds.
Oklahoma records 7.1 steals per game. Michigan State is 6-4 when giving up at least 7 steals.
