The Miami Heat (33-38) will have their chance to beat the Eastern Conference’s best team when they take on the Atlanta Hawks (54-17) at Philips Arena. The game starts at 7:30 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 27 and will air on Sun Sports and SPSO.
The Hawks were victorious over the Magic 95-83 on Wednesday. With 25 points and 11 rebounds, Paul Millsap recorded his 15th double-double this season. The Heat, meanwhile, are coming off a 93-86 win over the Celtics on Wednesday. Goran Dragic shot 8-for-16 and led in scoring with 22 points.
Millsap has really been playing well as of late for the Hawks, averaging 20.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers over the last five games. On the other side, the Heat have been led by Dragic. He has been on a tear, averaging 17.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.0 three-pointer in the same time frame.
The frequency with which the Heat shoot free throws could play a key factor in this game. They rank second in the league in free throw attempt rate (31.2), but Atlanta is among the best in the NBA at keeping opponents off the line (ranking third by allowing a free throw attempt rate of 24.0).
The Hawks have won all three contests against the Heat this season, including a close 93-91 victory in their last matchup. In the loss, Hassan Whiteside had a double-double with 14 points and 24 rebounds.
The odds are even for this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable. The Hawks enter the game with records of 54-17 Straight Up (SU) and 43-28 Against The Spread (ATS). They have gone 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS against teams from their own division. The Hawks are an impressive shooting team with a .465 field-goal percentage, one of the highest marks in the NBA. The Hawks, sporting the third-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the NBA (1.87), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team. Turning to the defensive side, teams routinely struggle to score points against the Hawks, who allow only 96.0 points per home game.
On the other side, Miami has a SU record of 33-38 and an ATS record of 33-35-3. Miami has a record of 4-9 SU and 6-6-1 ATS against the Southeast.
Atlanta beat Miami in their most recent meeting this season, taking the head-to-head record to an even 5-5 SU over the past 10 meetings. The teams also have an even record ATS in the last 10. When it comes to field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers, Atlanta and Miami each held the edge in all three of these categories once in the last 10 meetings.
Predictions: SU Winner – ATL, ATS Winner – ATL
Notes
Atlanta is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games.
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games.
Atlanta is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games at home.
Atlanta is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing Miami.
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta’s last 12 games when playing Miami.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 6 games when playing Miami.
Atlanta is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Miami.
Atlanta is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Miami.
Atlanta is 10-2 SU against the division, while Miami is struggling at 4-9 SU.
On average, Miami scores 94.7 points per game (ranked 27th), while Atlanta gives up 97.2 points per game (ranked sixth).
Miami averages 92.4 points per away game, placing the team just 29th in the league. Atlanta ranks fifth in points allowed at home, giving up 96.0 points per home game.
The Heat have a 29-14 record when they allow fewer than 100 points. The Hawks, however, have performed well when they score under 100 points, with a record of 18-10 in such matchups.
The Miami Heat have a subpar 4-24 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The Atlanta Hawks are 36-7 when they hit the century mark.
The Heat have an offensive rating of 101.5 (ranked 18th), while the Hawks rank seventh for their defensive rating of 100.6.
The Atlanta Hawks have one of the best field goal percentages this season, ranking third in the league with a FG% of 46.5%. When their opponents record a similar or higher FG%, the Miami Heat have a poor 8-21 record.
On average, Atlanta attempts 26.0 three pointers and Miami attempts 20.2 per game. In games where the teams have 25 or more three point attempts, the Hawks have a tremendous 33-10 record while the Heat have a poor 4-7 record.
The Atlanta Hawks, with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.87, rank third in the NBA. The Miami Heat have a lower A/TO (1.44), ranking 24th.
Both the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat have had their share of rebound struggles this season. The Hawks rank 28th in rebounding (40.5 per game) and the Heat rank 30th (38.7 per game).
The Miami Heat rank 29th in offensive rebounding, while the Atlanta Hawks rank 20th in defensive rebounding.
Though Miami is one of the best in the league in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TOV% of 15.3% (ranked eighth), Atlanta has a winning 16-8 record SU when it has a TOV% of 15.3% or greater.
