The Minnesota Timberwolves head to the Toyota Center to take on the Houston Rockets. The game starts at 8:00 pm ET on Friday, Mar. 27 and will air on FSN-N and ROOT-SW.
The Rockets won a close one over the Pelicans 95-93 on Wednesday. Trevor Ariza had 22 points, nine rebounds, and five assists for Houston. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, are coming off a bitter 101-99 loss at the hands of the Lakers on Wednesday. Andrew Wiggins had a good shooting night, leading the game with 27 points.
The defense for Houston should have a clear edge in terms of effective field goal percentage. They rank fifth in the league in forcing misses (opponents’ effective field goal percentage of 48.4%), while the offense of Minnesota is 28th with a mark of 46.7%. Furthermore, the 26th-ranked offense of the Timberwolves (offensive efficiency of 99.9) will face a tough test against the fourth-ranked defense of the Rockets (defensive efficiency of 100.1).
The Rockets have won all three matchups against the Timberwolves this season, including a 113-102 victory in their last matchup. James Harden played a huge role in the victory with a triple-double, with 31 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists.
Oddsmakers have deemed this game an even matchup and the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable at the moment. The Rockets enter the game with records of 48-23 Straight Up (SU) and 42-29 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games. The Rockets are an impressive three-point shooting team with an NBA-best 810 made (11.4 per game). Turning to the defensive side, teams really have to fight for open three-pointers against the Rockets, who have the best opponent three-point field goal percentage in the league at .317. The Rockets are the second-best team in the league at taking the ball away from their opponents, averaging 9.5 steals per game. Something to watch out for is if Houston can force its opponents into turnovers and convert them into baskets. They’ve done an excellent job of that all year with an average of 19.0 points off turnovers per game.
Across the court, the Timberwolves head into the game with records of 30-39-2 ATS and 16-55 SU. Most recently, Minnesota is a meager 3-7 ATS over the last 10 games. Minnesota is one of the top foul-shooting teams in the league, knocking down 19.5 shots from the line per game. The Timberwolves are a force on the offensive glass, grabbing an average of 12.0 offensive rebounds per game. The Timberwolves are in for a physical game against Houston. The Rockets are not afraid to send opponents to the free throw line, averaging 22.1 fouls per game.
Houston won the last meeting this season between these two teams, bringing its SU record to 8-2 over the Timberwolves in the last 10 games. Additionally, the Rockets lead the matchup ATS with a record of 6-4. Houston had the advantage in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) three times over the last 10. Minnesota has never had the edge in all categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, ATS Winner – HOU
Notes
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston’s last 6 games at home.
Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston’s last 5 games when playing Minnesota.
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston’s last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota.
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston.
On average, Minnesota scores 97.9 points per game (ranked 21st), while Houston allows 100.1 points per game (ranked 16th).
Minnesota ranks 16th in points per away game with 98.2 points, while Houston ranks 10th in points allowed at home with 96.9.
When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Rockets are 32-3 on the season. When the Timberwolves score fewer than 100, they are a subpar 6-35.
When giving up at least 100 points, the Houston Rockets have a 16-20 record. When registering triple digits, the Minnesota Timberwolves have an underachieving record of 10-20.
The Timberwolves have a defensive rating of 107.9 (ranked 30th). The Rockets rank 13th for their offensive rating of 103.3.
The Houston Rockets average 100.0 possessions and 1.033 points per possession in games this season. The Minnesota Timberwolves average fewer possessions with 98.0, as well as fewer points per possession with .999.
The Houston Rockets have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking seventh in the league with an EFF% of 50.8%. When their opponents record a similar or higher EFF%, the Minnesota Timberwolves have an abysmal 7-42 record.
On average, the Houston Rockets make 22.2 assists per game and the Minnesota Timberwolves make 21.7. Houston is ranked ninth, while Minnesota is ranked 15th.
Houston makes an average of 4.7 blocks per game (ranked 14th), while Minnesota makes 3.9 blocks per game (ranked 27th).
Houston is ranked sixth in offensive rebounding. Minnesota ranks 30th in defensive rebounds.
Making 8.3 steals per game, Minnesota is ranked eighth in the NBA. Houston has a winning 32-18 record when it gives up at least 8 steals.
