It will be a matchup between two of the league’s top scoring defenses when the Charlotte Hornets (30-40) go head-to-head against the Atlanta Hawks (54-17). The game starts at 7:00 pm ET on Saturday, Mar. 28 and will air on SPSO.
The Hornets lost a winnable game to the Nets 91-88 on Wednesday. Al Jefferson recorded 23 points and 10 rebounds, earning his 21st double-double of the year. The Hawks, meanwhile, are coming off a 95-83 win over the Magic on Wednesday. Paul Millsap had a good game, recording 25 points and 11 rebounds to claim his 15th double-double of the season.
Millsap has been on a tear over the last five games for the Hawks, averaging 20.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers.
Based on each team’s statistical profile, ball protection could play an integral role in this matchup. The Hornets commit the fewest miscues in the NBA (turnover percentage of 11.6%), while the ball-hawking defense of Charlotte forces the third-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 16.0%). Put-back points also figure to be rare for the Hawks. They rank 30th in the NBA in offensive rebounding (offensive rebound percentage of 21.3%), while the Hornets are best in the league on the defensive glass (defensive rebound percentage of 80.0%).
The two teams have split their matchups this season. The Hawks had the upper hand in the most recent game, a blowout 105-75 win. Millsap scored a game-high 18 points.
Oddsmakers have deemed this game an even matchup and the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable at the moment. The Hornets enter the game with records of 30-40 Straight Up (SU) and 33-35-2 Against The Spread (ATS). They have a record of 7-5 SU and 6-5-1 ATS when playing their division. The Hornets, sporting the fourth-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the NBA (1.83), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team.
Across the court, the Hawks head into the game with records of 43-28 ATS and 54-17 SU. In divisional games, Atlanta has gone 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS. Atlanta is one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league, hitting .385 of their shots from three-point range. The Hawks rarely make the wrong play with the ball. They have the third-best assist-to-turnover ratio in the league at 1.87. The Hawks are one of the top defensive teams in the league, essentially shutting down opponents to the tune of 97.2 points allowed per game.
Atlanta beat Charlotte in their most recent meeting this season, bringing its SU record in the past 10 games to 8-2. Additionally, with a 7-3 record, the Hawks have the advantage ATS. Atlanta had the advantage in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) six times over the last 10. Charlotte has never had the edge in all categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – ATL, ATS Winner – ATL
Notes
Charlotte is 1-5-1 SU in its last 7 games,.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte’s last 7 games at home.
Charlotte is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home.
Charlotte is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Charlotte’s last 14 games when playing Atlanta.
Charlotte is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing Atlanta.
Charlotte is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Atlanta.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Charlotte’s last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta.
Atlanta is 10-2 SU against its divisional rivals, while Charlotte is 7-5 SU.
Atlanta averages 102.5 points per game (ranked 11th). However, Charlotte has allowed an average of just 96.9 points per game (ranked fourth).
Atlanta and Charlotte are well matched, ranking ninth in points per away game and points allowed at home respectively. Atlanta scores an average of 102.0 points on the road, while Charlotte allows 96.7 points at home on average.
When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Hawks are 39-4 on the season. When the Hornets score fewer than 100, they are a poor 11-32.
When the Atlanta Hawks allow at least 100 points they are 15-13, while the Charlotte Hornets are 19-8 when they reach the century mark.
Atlanta’s offense and Charlotte’s defense both rank sixth this season. Atlanta has an offensive rating of 106.1 and Charlotte has a defensive rating of 100.3.
Atlanta has an average field goal percentage of 46.5% (ranked third). Charlotte is an abysmal 4-16 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Charlotte Hornets average 18.4 three point attempts per game and have a losing 1-2 record when attempting at least 25 in a game. The Atlanta Hawks average 26.0 attempts and have an outstanding 33-10 record when attempting 25 or more.
The Atlanta Hawks are among the best in the league with an assist to turnover ratio of 1.87 (ranked third). Ranking fourth, the Charlotte Hornets have an A/TO of 1.83.
Atlanta ranks 28th in rebounds per game with 40.5, while Charlotte ranks ninth with 44.2.
Charlotte ranks fifth in defensive rebounding, placing the team near the top of the pack. Atlanta, however, ranks 30th in offensive rebounds.
Atlanta is one of the top teams in forced turnovers, with opponents averaging a TOV% of 16.0% (ranked third). Charlotte has a subpar record of 2-4 SU this season when its TOV% reaches 16.0% or greater.
