The No.1-seeded Kentucky Wildcats and No.3-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish meet for an opportunity to move on to the Final Four. Action begins at 8:49 pm ET on Saturday, Mar. 28 and can be seen on TBS.
The Wildcats come into this game hoping to repeat their last performance, blowing out West Virginia 78-39 in the Sweet 16. Karl-Anthony Towns was a key piece with 13 points, seven rebounds, and two assists. The Fighting Irish, meanwhile, are coming off an 81-70 win against Wichita State in the Sweet 16. Jerian Grant played well for Notre Dame, accounting for 19 points, 10 rebounds, and two steals.
Over the last five games, Towns has taken his game to another level for the Wildcats, averaging 14.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 2.8 blocks.
Baskets could be hard to come by as Kentucky ranks first in the nation, allowing just 119.4 points per 100 possessions, while Notre Dame is 11th (146.5). Also, the sharp-shooting offense of the Fighting Irish ranks second in eFG% at 58.6%, while the Wildcats are best in the nation at forcing opponents’ misses (39.7%).
This one isn’t expected to be close when Kentucky, a substantial 11-point favorite, takes on Notre Dame. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of 137 points. The Wildcats have gone 37-0 Straight Up (SU) and 20-15-2 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have had success covering the spread (8-1-1). The Wildcats are one of the best in Division I in terms of field-goal percentage, shooting an impressive .469 from the field. The rebounding edge goes to the Wildcats in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 38.1 boards per game. Kentucky is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.38.
As for their opponent, the Fighting Irish have a record of 16-13 ATS and 32-5 SU. Notre Dame performed well ATS during its last 10 games, earning a 7-3 record. The Fighting Irish convert their free throws at a high percentage, ranking 27th in the nation at .740. The Fighting Irish are the better of the two teams when it comes to assist-to-turnover ratio, ranking fourth in Division I at 1.61.
These two meet for what will be their first head-to-head battle of the season. Notre Dame won the last game in the matchup, but the win was not enough to overtake Kentucky in their recent head-to-head series. Its record is now 2-4 SU over the most recent meetings. With a 4-2 record, the Wildcats also have the advantage ATS. Notre Dame held the advantage in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers one time in the last five matchups. On the other side of the court, Kentucky never accomplished this feat in that span.
Predictions: SU Winner – UK, ATS Winner – UK, O/U – Over
Notes
The Kentucky Wildcats have the best defense in the nation, with a defensive rating of 119.4. The Notre Dame offense ranks a solid second, with an offensive rating of 121.3.
The Kentucky Wildcats average a field goal percentage of 46.9% this season. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 3-4 when opponents have a FG% of 46.9% or greater.
The Kentucky Wildcats rank higher based on their field goal percentage (38th) than their effective field goal percentage (78th), while the Notre Dame Fighting Irish rank the same for both metrics (second).
Kentucky ranks 41st in assists, recording 14.9 per game. Notre Dame ranks 34th with 15.1 assists per game.
Kentucky, the second-ranked team in blocked shots, records an average of 6.9 per game. Notre Dame ranks lower at 161st with 3.6.
Kentucky is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to offensive rebounds, ranking 22nd. Notre Dame ranks just 115th in defensive rebounds.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish average 6.9 steals per game. The Kentucky Wildcats are undefeated with an 11-0 record when they give up at least 6 steals.
