The Miami Heat (34-40) travel to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers (48-27) in what should be a low-scoring game. Action begins at 8:00 pm ET on Thursday, Apr. 2 and can be seen on TNT.
The Cavaliers played well in their last game, edging the 76ers 87-86 on Sunday. Timofey Mozgov played a pivotal role, recording his 17th double-double of the season with 14 points and 10 rebounds. The Heat, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after the 95-81 loss against the Spurs on Tuesday. Hassan Whiteside had a good game for Miami, accounting for 10 points, six rebounds, and two steals.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when two of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams square off. Cleveland ranks 26th in the league in possessions per game (95.4), while Miami is 29th (93.3). Furthermore, getting to the line could play a crucial role for the Heat. They rank second in the league in free throw attempt rate (30.9). However, the Cavaliers are among the best in the NBA at keeping opponents off the charity stripe (ranking second at 23.8).
The Heat lead the season series against the Cavaliers two games to one, including a 106-92 win the last time these two teams met. Dwyane Wade was the game’s top overall scorer with 32 points.
The odds for Cleveland and Miami are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is currently not available. The Cavaliers come into this game 48-27 Straight Up (SU) and 38-37 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 30-15 SU and 21-24 ATS against the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers are one of the best in the NBA in terms of three-point field goals, making 9.8 shots per game from beyond the arc. Opposing teams know they’re in for a battle when they play Cleveland’s stingy defense. The Cavaliers are one of the top teams when it comes to defense, allowing just 95.8 points per home game.
Over on the other bench, the Heat have 34-40 SU and 34-37-3 ATS records. Against the Eastern Conference, Miami is 22-22 SU and 22-20-2 ATS.
In their previous meeting this season, Miami beat Cleveland, bumping its SU record over the last 10 meetings to 9-1. With a 6-4 record, the Cavaliers have the advantage ATS. In these last 10 matchups, each team was able to hold the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers one time.
Predictions: SU Winner – CLE, ATS Winner – CLE
Notes
On average, Miami puts up 94.5 points per game (ranked 28th), while Cleveland gives up 98.5 points per game (ranked 12th).
While Miami puts up an average of just 92.3 points per game on the road (ranked 28th), Cleveland ranks fifth in points allowed at home, giving up 95.8 points per game.
When allowing fewer than 100 points, the Heat are 29-16 on the season. When the Cavaliers score fewer than 100, they are an underachieving 10-22.
When allowing 100 or more points in a game, the Heat are just 5-24 this season. Cleveland is an exceptional 38-5 when registering triple digits.
The Cavaliers have a defensive rating of 103.3 (ranked 19th), while the Heat rank 18th for their offensive rating of 101.3.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have one of the best field goal percentages this season, ranking seventh in the league with a FG% of 45.9%. When their opponents record a similar or higher FG%, the Miami Heat have a losing 9-25 record.
On average, Cleveland attempts 27.1 three pointers and Miami attempts 20.3 per game. In games where the teams have 25 or more three point attempts, the Cavaliers have a 29-20 record while the Heat have a poor 4-8 record.
Cleveland has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.63 this season (ranked 15th), while Miami ranks lower at 25th with an A/TO of 1.43.
The Miami Heat are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league with just 38.8 per game. Ranked 19th, the Cleveland Cavaliers average 42.9 rebounds.
Cleveland is ranked 19th in defensive rebounds, while Miami ranks 29th in offensive rebounds.
Miami is one of the best in the league in forcing turnovers, with opponents averaging a TOV% of 15.4% (ranked seventh). Cleveland is an even 16-16 SU when it has a TOV% of 15.4% or greater.
